ArticleInternational journal of colorectal disease2025
Predicting extensive metastasis in postoperative oligometastatic colorectal cancer.
Article in International journal of colorectal disease, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- MRI-based radiomics for preoperative T-staging of rectal cancer: a retrospective analysis.International journal of colorectal disease · 2025Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
purposeOligometastatic colorectal cancer (OMCRC) patients can achieve long-term disease control with multidisciplinary treatment. However, the development of extensive metastasis worsens prognosis and restricts treatment options. This study aims to develop a predictive model for extensive metastasis in OMCRC to assist in clinical decision-making.
methodsClinical and pathological data for OMCRC patients were collected from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University. Patients were randomly divided into training and testing cohorts. Risk factors for extensive metastasis were identified through LASSO regression analysis and COX regression analysis. Three predictive models were developed in the training cohort and validated in the testing cohort: COX regression analysis, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Survival Support Vector Machine (SurvSVM). Finally, the optimal model was visualized with the nomogram.
resultsA total of 214 patients with OMCRC were enrolled in the study. Four independent risk factors were identified: whether surgery has been undertaken following oligometastasis (WST), histological type (HT), carcinoembryonic antigen at the last follow-up (CAE at last-FU), and preoperative albumin to globulin ratio (Preop-AGR). In the testing cohort, the COX model (1-year AUC = 0.82, 3-year AUC = 0.72, 5-year AUC = 0.85, mean AUC = 0.80) performed best. Decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the net benefit of the Cox model, and the nomogram provided accurate predictions of metastasis risk.
conclusionCAE at last-FU, Preop-AGR, HT, and WST are independent risk factors for extensive metastasis in OMCRC. The nomogram model incorporating risk factors can assist clinicians in developing optimal treatment for OMCRC patients.
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