Evidence map›Paper›PMID 40000421›Full record

ArticleAddiction (Abingdon, England)2025

Quantifying the impact of a large-scale opioid agonist treatment program on suicide prevention in New South Wales, Australia: A data-modeling study.

Thomas James Santo, Antoine Chaillon, Natasha Martin, Matthew Hickman, Nicola Jones, Michael Farrell, Chrianna Bharat, Louisa Degenhardt, Annick Borquez

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Addiction (Abingdon, England), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Thomas James SantoNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1218-3946
Antoine ChaillonDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA.
Natasha MartinDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA.
Matthew HickmanPopulation Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9864-459X
Nicola JonesNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5742-4598
Michael FarrellNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7008-8130
Chrianna BharatNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9778-0386
Louisa DegenhardtNational Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-2218
Annick BorquezDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6033-9837

Funding

VirologyP30AI036214 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SUSAN JANET LITTLE · 1994 to 2026
$78.4M
Real-time prediction of emerging drug use epidemics in the United StatesDP2DA049295 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI BORQUEZ, ANNICK · 2019 to 2019
$2.4M
Optimizing HIV prevention portfolios targeting people who inject drugs using dynamic economic modelingR01AI147490 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MARTIN, NATASHA · 2019 to 2022
$2.3M
TRANSFORM - Transforming the evidence base on estimating prevalence of opioid use disorder and expanded access to interventions to prevent drug related deaths: an international data linkage studyR01DA059822 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES · PI Joshua Adam Barocas, Louisa Degenhardt · 2024 to 2026
$2.3M
Using existing data to understand and ameliorate risk in opioid agonist therapyR01DA044170 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES · PI DEGENHARDT, LOUISA · 2017 to 2019
$641k
Australian Government Department of HealthCenter for AIDS ResearchDepartment of Health and Aged Care, Australian Government Drug & Alcohol ProgramJames B. Pendleton Charitable TrustNational Drug and Alcohol Research CentreNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI147490NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI036214NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI147490NIDA NIH HHS 1R01DA059822-01A1NIDA NIH HHS DP2 DA049295NIDA NIH HHS DP2DA049295NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA044170NIDA NIH HHS R01DA044170-03S1NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA059822NIDA NIH HHS R01DA1104470NIH HHS R01 DA144740NSW Ministry of Healththe JamesU.S. Department of Veterans AffairsVA
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsThis study aimed to quantify the population-level impact of a large-scale opioid agonist treatment (OAT) program on suicide-related mortality among people with opioid use disorder (OUD) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.

designThis is the first study to use dynamic mathematical modeling to explore the population-level impact of OAT on suicide mortality. The study used a two-part approach. First, we analyzed cohort data (2001-2017) to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and other model parameters related to OAT and suicide risk. Second, findings were applied to model outputs to estimate suicides averted by the NSW OAT program (2001-2020). SETTING AND

participantsA cohort of 46 845 individuals who received OAT between 2001 and 2017 in community and prison settings in New South Wales, Australia. MEASUREMENTS: IRRs for suicide and other model parameters were calculated for individuals on versus off OAT in community and prison settings (2001-2017). These estimates, along with model outputs, were used to determine the number and proportion of suicides averted by the OAT program (2001-2020).

findingsReceiving OAT was associated with an IRR for suicide of 0.32 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.25-0.40] in the community and 0.34 (95% CI = 0.10-1.10) in prison for cohort data analyses (2001-2017). Between 2001 and 2020, the OAT program in NSW averted an estimated 338 suicides [95% credible interval (CrI) = 213-492), with 325 (95% CrI = 202-476) averted in the community and 13 (95% CrI = 0-46) in prison, corresponding to a 35% (95% CrI = 27%-43%) reduction in suicides among those accessing OAT.

conclusionsThe opioid agonist treatment program in New South Wales, Australia, was associated with a 35% reduction in suicide mortality among individuals with opioid use disorder receiving treatment between 2001 and 2020, providing novel evidence of its population-level impact on suicide prevention.

Indexed as

Analgesics, OpioidOpiate Substitution TreatmentOpioid-Related DisordersSuicide PreventionAdultFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalNew South WalesSuicideYoung AdultAnalgesics, Opioidharm reductionmathematical modelingopioid agonist treatmentopioid use disorderpublic healthsuicide

Identifiers

PMID40000421
PMCPMC12215286

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.