ReviewMDM policy & practice
How Time-Trend Tasks Are Affected by Probability Format: A Making Numbers Meaningful Systematic Review.
Review in MDM policy & practice. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Accurate is not enough: select formats for communicating probabilities to achieve specific outcomes.BMJ evidence-based medicine · 2026Article
- Evidence on Methods for Communicating Health-Related Probabilities: Comparing the Making Numbers Meaningful Systematic Review to the 2021 IPDAS Evidence Paper Recommendations.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2025Article
- How to Make Sense of the Making Numbers Meaningful Systematic Review.MDM policy & practiceArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Highlights: This systematic review found that few studies of probability trend data compared similar formats or used comparable outcome measures.The only strong piece of evidence was that graphing probabilities over longer time periods such that the distance between curves widens will tend to increase the perceived difference between the curves.Weak evidence suggests that survival curves (versus mortality curves) may make it easier to identify the option with the highest overall survival.Weak evidence suggests that graphing probabilities over longer (rather than shorter) time periods may increase the ability to distinguish between small survival differences.Evidence was insufficient to determine whether any format influenced behaviors or behavioral intentions.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.