Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39994475›Full record

ArticleNature medicine2025

Global patterns and trends in breast cancer incidence and mortality across 185 countries.

Joanne Kim, Andrew Harper, Valerie McCormack, Hyuna Sung, Nehmat Houssami, Eileen Morgan, Miriam Mutebi, Gail Garvey, Isabelle Soerjomataram, Miranda M Fidler-Benaoudia

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Nature medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07238894 (Peking University People's Hospital Breast Surgery Department), which is not on this map. Cited by 641 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
641citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07238894 narecruitingnot on this mapstarted 2026, after this paper: background citation

Peking University People's Hospital Breast Surgery Department

TypeinterventionalSponsorPeking University People's HospitalRan2026 to 2028Enrolled200ConditionsAblation, Breast CancerArmsCombined Cryoablation and Thermal Ablation system
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

641 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  5. Effects of self-acupressure on the fatigue-sleep disturbance-depression symptom cluster in breast cancer survivors: a phase III randomised controlled trial.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2026
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  12. Cancer biology & therapy · 2026
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581 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Joanne KimEnvironment and Lifestyle Epidemiology Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7458-2128
Andrew HarperDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Valerie McCormackDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7397-3442
Hyuna SungSurveillance and Health Equity Science, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, GA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8021-5997
Nehmat HoussamiThe Daffodil Centre, University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3641-952X
Eileen MorganCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4242-6240
Miriam MutebiDepartment of Surgery, Aga Khan University, Nairobi, Kenya.
Gail GarveySchool of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5065-5716
Isabelle SoerjomataramCancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Miranda M Fidler-BenaoudiaDepartment of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. miranda.fidler-benaoudia@ahs.ca.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9594-9881

Funding

Department of Health | National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) 1194410Fonds de Recherche du Québec - Santé (Fonds de la recherche en sante du Quebec) Postdoctoral AwardNational Breast Cancer Foundation (NBCF) EC-21-001Susan G. Komen (Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation) CCR19608129World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Updates of current and projected estimates of the burden are critical to monitoring the success of ongoing efforts in breast cancer control, such as the World Health Organization Global Breast Cancer Initiative, which aims to reduce breast cancer mortality by 2.5% per year. We investigated the current (2022) and future (2050) global burden of female breast cancer overall, and by age group, in 185 countries using the GLOBOCAN database, and 10-year trends in incidence and mortality rates in 50 and 46 countries, respectively, using the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents plus and World Health Organization mortality databases. Globally, 2.3 million new cases and 670,000 deaths from female breast cancer occurred in 2022. Annual rates increased by 1-5% in half of examined countries. Mortality rates decreased in 29 countries with very high Human Development Index (HDI), and seven countries (for example, Belgium and Denmark) are meeting the Global Breast Cancer Initiative goal of at least a 2.5% decrease each year. By 2050, new cases and deaths will have increased by 38% and 68%, respectively, disproportionately impacting low-HDI countries. High-quality cancer and vital status data, and continued progress in early diagnosis and access to treatment, are needed in countries with low and medium HDI to address inequities and monitor cancer control goals.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsGlobal HealthAdultAgedFemaleHumansIncidenceMiddle AgedMortalityWorld Health Organization

Identifiers

PMID39994475

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.