ArticleEuropean journal of nuclear medicine and molecular imaging2025
External validation of a predictive model for post-treatment persistent disease by
Article in European journal of nuclear medicine and molecular imaging, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Interpretable four-class machine learning prediction of initial I-131 therapy responses in differentiated thyroid cancer.Annals of medicine · 2026Article
- A clinical feature-based nomogram for the personalized prediction of radioactive iodine therapy outcomes in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma.Oncology letters · 2025Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
purposeWe performed an external validation of a predictive model for persistent/metastatic disease in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) at post-treatment
methodsOur study population included 836 patients (median age 44 years, 78% women) with DTC referred from 1994 to 2021 at our center. Age, sex, histology, T stage, N stage, American Thyroid Association risk classes, thyroid-stimulating hormone, radioactive iodine (RAI) activity, and thyroglobulin (Tg) levels were considered potential predictors of post-treatment WBS results. For the external validation, N stage and Tg levels were put into the decision tree (DT) model using its same Tg cut-off values.
resultsNinety-nine patients (12%) had positive post-treatment WBS. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predicting WBS findings through the external validation was 0.60 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.56-0.64), and positive and negative predictive values were 58% (95% CI, 41-74%) and 90% (95% CI, 88-92%). We also developed an internal model including the independent predictors of WBS findings (i.e., Tg levels, T stage, N stage, and RAI activity). For this model the area under ROC curve was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.69-0.81), and positive and negative predictive values were 90% (95% CI, 68-99% and 88-92%).
conclusionsThe external validation of the proposed DT model has a limited value for predicting post-treatment
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