Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39992221›Full record

SynthesisJNCI cancer spectrum2025

Revisiting surrogacy of pathological complete response for long-term survival in triple-negative breast cancer.

Toru Yoshino, Zao Zhang, Ryota Sato, Stanley Lipkowitz, Takeo Fujii

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in JNCI cancer spectrum, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Toru YoshinoWomen's Malignancies Branch, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-1586-2706
Zao ZhangDepartment of Internal Medicine, The Queen's Medical Center, Honolulu, HI 96813, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-3552-8078
Ryota SatoDepartment of Internal Medicine, The Queen's Medical Center, Honolulu, HI 96813, United States.ORCID 0000-0001-8806-2852
Stanley LipkowitzWomen's Malignancies Branch, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, United States.
Takeo FujiiWomen's Malignancies Branch, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, United States.ORCID 0000-0003-3747-2688

Funding

Elucidating the role of thrombosis and inflammation in breast cancer metastasisZIABC012130 · NCI · DIVISION OF BASIC SCIENCES - NCI · PI FUJII, TAKEO · 2023 to 2025
$2.2M
Intramural NIH HHS ZIA BC012130NIH HHS ZIA BC 012130
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPathological complete response has been used as a primary endpoint in neoadjuvant trials in early stage triple-negative breast cancer, and the Food and Drug Administration accepted pathological complete response as a surrogate endpoint for long-term survival outcomes in high-risk early stage breast cancer for new drug approval. However, there is insufficient trial-level data to robustly support pathological complete response as a surrogate for long-term survival in triple-negative breast cancer.

methodsA systematic literature review was performed to identify randomized clinical trials of neoadjuvant systemic therapy for patients with clinical stage I-III triple-negative breast cancer. Data of odds ratios (ORs) for pathological complete response and hazard ratios (HRs) for event-free survival and overall survival were extracted. Disease-free survival was used as an alternative when event-free survival data were unavailable. A linear regression model on a logarithmic scale, coefficient of difference, and 95% confidential interval (CI) were calculated to assess the trial-level association between odds ratio for pathological complete response and hazard ratio for overall survival and event-free survival.

resultsEight trials with 2342 patients were included. Three trials tested immune checkpoint inhibitors. Coefficient of difference (R2) was 0.2 for hazard ratio of event-free survival (95% CI = 0.17 to 0.22, P = .27), and R2 for hazard ratio of overall survival was 0.19 (95% CI = 0.17 to 0.22, P = .33).

conclusionsThere is no strong evidence to support using pathological complete response as a surrogate marker for event-free survival or overall survival in early stage triple-negative breast cancer at the trial level. Because of the necessity of minimizing drug approval delay with reliable long-term outcome, further studies of surrogate markers in early stage triple-negative breast cancer are warranted.

Indexed as

Neoadjuvant TherapyTriple Negative Breast NeoplasmsDisease-Free SurvivalFemaleHumansImmune Checkpoint InhibitorsNeoplasm StagingOdds RatioProportional Hazards ModelsRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicImmune Checkpoint Inhibitors

Identifiers

PMID39992221
PMCPMC11932712

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.