Observational studyFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology2024
Mortality risk prediction model in AIDS patients with pneumocystis pneumonia in China.
Observational study in Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Gut microecology and cardiovascular disease: core pathogenic mechanisms and clinical intervention strategies.Folia microbiologica · 2026Review
- Development and internal validation of a CT radiomics-based model for severity classification in HIV-associatedJournal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- SFTSV: a priority pathogen in need of a cure-reviewing the therapeutic.Archives of microbiology · 2026Review
- Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support for four patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome complicated by pneumocystis pneumonia: a case series and literature review.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Article
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12 authors.
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Abstract
Introduction: Pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP) is a common and serious complication of HIV/AIDS, with a higher prevalence in patients not receiving antiretroviral therapy. Due to the high mortality rate of PCP, accurate prediction of its case fatality rate is very important for clinical treatment. We aimed to develop a risk model for the near-term prognosis of people with HIV/AIDS and PCP and verify its effectiveness. Methods: This single-center, retrospective observational study was conducted at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 2012 to October 2022. 972 AIDS patients with Pneumocystis pneumonia met our criteria were recruited. The patients were divided into death group and survival group according to clinical outcome during hospitalization. Data of the two groups were collected including general information and laboratory test results. 53 medical characteristics of the two groups were collected. Prediction variables were screened with Multivariate logistic regression analysis and Lasso regression model. We used ROC curve to identify the discrimination of training and testing data sets. The Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method was applied to explain the final model and the weights of features. Results: The overall mortality rate among hospitalized patients was 17.8%. We found that the best prediction effect can be obtained when ALB, PO Conclusion: We developed and validated a model of the prognostic risk level of PCP in patients of AIDS with the results of blood tests reviewed by patients at routine visits. The model is more convenient to use, allowing clinicians to obtain a determined probability value of PCP mortality with simple calculations within the first 72 hours of the patient's admission.
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