ArticleReproductive biology and endocrinology : RB&E2025
Ambient temperature and female infertility prevalence: an ecological study based on the 2019 global burden of disease study.
Article in Reproductive biology and endocrinology : RB&E, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- The association between heat waves and pregnancy outcome among women undergoing assisted reproductive technology in Sichuan, China.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Oocyte aging in focus: Environmental and endogenous stressors driving reproductive potential decline.GeroScience · 2026Review
- Global Warming, Fertility, and Spermatogenesis Decline: Global and Regional Evidence from 195 Countries and Implications for Climate Adaptation Policy.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe impact of climate change on human health is well established; however, its effect on the prevalence of female infertility is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between ambient temperature changes and the prevalence of female infertility.
methodsIn this ecological study, 174 countries and regions were included. We utilized 2000-2019 data on the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of female infertility and temperature data from Global Burden of Disease, ERA5 (fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis for the global climate), and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 databases. Temperature over 12 months was averaged to express the annual temperature estimates, and the deviance percentage of temperature (DPT) was calculated based on the 20-year average temperature. Three-node restricted cubic spline curves were used to evaluate the association between temperature and the ASPR of female infertility. Linear mixed-effects models, with country code as a random effect, were used to estimate the effect size (β) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for DPT and the ASPR of female infertility. Adjusted linear mixed-effects models were used to predict the impact of future temperature changes (2020-2030) on the ASPR of female infertility.
resultsBetween 2000 and 2019, a U-shaped relationship was observed between temperature and the ASPR of female infertility, with the lowest ASPR occurring at 15 ℃. Increased DPT was associated with an increased ASPR of female infertility, with an adjusted β (95% CI) of 78.952 (10.514, 147.710). Future temperature increases will further elevate the ASPR of female infertility.
conclusionGlobally, temperature changes may be associated with an increase in the ASPR of female infertility.
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