Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39985487›Full record

ArticleAlzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association2025

Machine learning prediction of tau-PET in Alzheimer's disease using plasma, MRI, and clinical data.

Linda Karlsson, Jacob Vogel, Ida Arvidsson, Kalle Åström, Olof Strandberg, Jakob Seidlitz, Richard A I Bethlehem, Erik Stomrud, Rik Ossenkoppele, Nicholas J Ashton and 10 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 22 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Plasma P-tau217 for detecting amyloid clearance after donanemab in Alzheimer's disease.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026
    Trial
  4. Classification of tau status with machine learning models in amyloid-positive cohorts.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026
    Article
  5. Review
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  9. Ratios of CSF proteins reflect cognitive function in ALS.Alzheimer's research & therapy · 2026
    Article
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  11. Review
  12. Article
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  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors.

Linda KarlssonClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0630-772X
Jacob VogelDepartment of Clinical Sciences, SciLifeLab, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Ida ArvidssonCentre for Mathematical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Kalle ÅströmCentre for Mathematical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Olof StrandbergClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Jakob SeidlitzPenn/CHOP Lifespan Brain Institute, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Richard A I BethlehemUniversity of Cambridge, Department of Psychology, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, UK.
Erik StomrudClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Rik OssenkoppeleClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Nicholas J AshtonDepartment of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.
Henrik ZetterbergDepartment of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.
Kaj BlennowDepartment of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.
Sebastian PalmqvistClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Ruben SmithClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Shorena JanelidzeClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Renaud La JoieDepartment of Neurology, Memory and Aging Center, Weill Institute for Neurosciences, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Gil D RabinoviciDepartment of Neurology, Memory and Aging Center, Weill Institute for Neurosciences, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Alexa Pichet BinetteClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Niklas Mattsson-CarlgrenClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Oskar HanssonClinical Memory Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences Malmö, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.

Funding

Research Education ComponentP30AG072980 · NIA · BANNER HEALTH · PI Nicholas Ashton · 2021 to 2026
$24.9M
Prospective validation and implementation of high-performing blood biomarkers and digital cognitive tests for detection of Alzheimer's disease in specialist memory clinic and primary care settingsR01AG083740 · NIA · LUNDS UNIVERSITET · PI Sebastian Palmqvist · 2023 to 2026
$1.9M
Alzheimerfonden AF-980907Alzheimerfonden AF-994229Alzheimer's Association SG-23-1061717Alzheimer's Association ZEN24-1069572EU Joint Programme - Neurodegenerative Disease Research 2019-03401H2020 European Research Council ADG-101096455Hjärnfonden FO2021-0293Hjärnfonden FO2023-0163Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse 2022-0231NIA NIH HHS P30 AG072980NIA NIH HHS R01 AG083740NIA NIH HHS R01AG083740Parkinsonfonden 1412/22Science for Life Laboratory KAW 2020.0239Skånes universitetssjukhus 2020-O000028Vetenskapsrådet 2018-02052Vetenskapsrådet 2021-02219Vetenskapsrådet 2022-00775WASP and DDLS Joint call for research projects WASP/DDLS22-066
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionTau positron emission tomography (PET) is a reliable neuroimaging technique for assessing regional load of tau pathology in the brain, but its routine clinical use is limited by cost and accessibility barriers.

methodsWe thoroughly investigated the ability of various machine learning models to predict clinically useful tau-PET composites (load and laterality index) from low-cost and non-invasive features, for example, clinical variables, plasma biomarkers, and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

resultsModels including plasma biomarkers yielded the most accurate predictions of tau-PET burden (best model: R-squared = 0.66-0.69), with especially high contribution from plasma phosphorylated tau-217 (p-tau217). MRI variables were the best predictors of asymmetric tau load between the two hemispheres (best model: R-squared = 0.28-0.42). The models showed high generalizability to external test cohorts with data collected at multiple sites. Through a proof-of-concept two-step classification workflow, we also demonstrated possible model translations to a clinical setting. DISCUSSION: This study highlights the promising and limiting aspects of using machine learning to predict tau-PET from scalable cost-effective variables, with findings relevant for clinical settings and future research. HIGHLIGHTS: Accessible variables showed potential in estimating tau tangle load and distribution. Plasma phosphorylated tau-217 (p-tau217) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were the best predictors of different tau-PET (positron emission tomography) composites. Machine learning models demonstrated high generalizability across AD cohorts.

Indexed as

Alzheimer DiseaseBrainMachine LearningMagnetic Resonance ImagingPositron-Emission Tomographytau ProteinsAgedBiomarkersFemaleHumansMaleBiomarkersMAPT protein, humantau Proteins

Identifiers

PMID39985487
PMCPMC11846480

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.