Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39980046›Full record

ArticleTropical medicine and health2025

Global, regional, and national trends in chronic kidney disease burden (1990-2021): a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease in 2021.

Jiaxi Chen, Miao Deng, Rubin Zheng, Yanjin Chen, Wenyi Pang, Ziyang Zhang, Zhouke Tan, Zhixun Bai

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Article in Tropical medicine and health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Jiaxi ChenClinical College, Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563000, Guizhou, China.
Miao DengDepartment of Nephrology, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563006, Guizhou, China.
Rubin ZhengClinical College, Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563000, Guizhou, China.
Yanjin ChenClinical College, Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563000, Guizhou, China.
Wenyi PangClinical College, Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563000, Guizhou, China.
Ziyang ZhangDepartment of Nephrology, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563006, Guizhou, China.
Zhouke TanDepartment of Nephrology, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563006, Guizhou, China.
Zhixun BaiDepartment of Nephrology, People's Hospital of Qianxinan Prefecture, Xingyi, 562400, Guizhou, China. zhixunbai@zmu.edu.cn.

Funding

National College Students Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program 2024106610965
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health challenge with diverse etiologies. However, research on the incidence trends of CKD attributable to specific causes remains limited, and the incidence and mortality rates vary across regions. This study aims to identify the patterns and temporal trends of CKD incidence, providing valuable information for the development of targeted prevention strategies and interventions.

methodsCKD data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study (1990-2021) were analyzed by sex, region, country, cause, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Disease burden was assessed using age-standardized incidence (ASIR), mortality rates (ASMR), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Decomposition analysis evaluated population aging, growth, and epidemiological impacts. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the burden of CKD from 2021 to 2031, and the age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to assess the effects of age, time, and cohort. Health inequality was analyzed using Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Concentration Index (CI).

resultsIn 2021, Saudi Arabia had the highest ASIR, while Mauritius had the highest mortality. China and India contributed the most cases and deaths. ARIMA forecasts CKD cases will rise to 22.21 million and deaths to 1.81 million by 2031. Epidemiological changes drove incidence growth in medium SDI regions and mortality in high SDI regions. EAPC correlated with ASIR and ASMR. APC analysis showed incidence peaked between 70-80 years, with earlier cohorts facing higher risks. Unknown causes, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension were the leading CKD etiologies. From 1990-2021, health inequality in CKD incidence and mortality worsened, especially in high SDI regions, where the mortality CI shifted from 0.05 to - 0.09.

conclusionsThis study estimated the temporal trends of CKD incidence and mortality globally, as well as at the national and regional levels, from 1990 to 2021. It was observed that countries with higher socio-demographic index (SDI) exhibited unfavorable trends, suggesting that these countries should develop more targeted and specific strategies to address the growing burden of CKD.

Indexed as

Chronic kidney diseaseGlobal Burden of DiseaseIncidenceMortality

Identifiers

PMID39980046
PMCPMC11843816

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