Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39978992›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Child & adolescent health2025

Trajectories of airflow limitation from childhood to early adulthood: an analysis of six population-based birth cohorts.

Anhar Ullah, Raquel Granell, Lesley Lowe, Sara Fontanella, Hasan Arshad, Clare S Murray, Steve Turner, John W Holloway, Angela Simpson, Graham Roberts and 10 more

Abstract read
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Article in The Lancet. Child & adolescent health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Postnatal growth and childhood asthma in preterm and full-term twins: A cohort study.Pediatric allergy and immunology : official publication of the European Society of Pediatric Allergy and Immunology · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Hallmarks of the ageing lung: 10 years later.The European respiratory journal · 2026
    Review
  5. Review
  6. The Developmental Origins of Asthma and COPD.Annual review of physiology · 2026
    Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors.

Anhar UllahNational Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK; NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK.
Raquel GranellDepartment of Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Lesley LoweDivision of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK.
Sara FontanellaNational Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK; NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK.
Hasan ArshadHuman Development and Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK; NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK; David Hide Asthma and Allergy Research Centre, Isle of Wight, UK.
Clare S MurrayDivision of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK.
Steve TurnerRoyal Aberdeen Children's Hospital NHS Grampian Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Child Health, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
John W HollowayHuman Development and Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK; NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK.
Angela SimpsonDivision of Infection, Immunity and Respiratory Medicine, School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK.
Graham RobertsHuman Development and Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK; NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospitals Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK; David Hide Asthma and Allergy Research Centre, Isle of Wight, UK.
Gang WangDepartment of Clinical Science and Education, Karolinska Institutet, Södersjukhuset, Stockholm, Sweden; Division of Internal Medicine, Institute of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Jadwiga A WedzichaNational Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Rosa FanerCátedra de Salud Respiratoria, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Respiratory Institute, Clinic Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Hans Jacob L KoefoedDepartment of Pediatric Pulmonology and Pediatric Allergology, Beatrix Children's Hospital, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands; Groningen Research Institute for Asthma and COPD (GRIAC), University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
Judith M VonkGroningen Research Institute for Asthma and COPD (GRIAC), University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
Alvar AgustiCátedra de Salud Respiratoria, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Respiratory Institute, Clinic Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Fundació Clinic Recerca Biomedica-Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Madrid, Spain.
Gerard H KoppelmanDepartment of Pediatric Pulmonology and Pediatric Allergology, Beatrix Children's Hospital, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands; Groningen Research Institute for Asthma and COPD (GRIAC), University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
Erik MelénDepartment of Clinical Science and Education, Karolinska Institutet, Södersjukhuset, Stockholm, Sweden; Sachs' Children and Youth Hospital, Södersjukhuset, Stockholm, Sweden.
Adnan CustovicNational Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK; NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK. Electronic address: a.custovic@imperial.ac.uk.
CADSET Clinical Research Collaboration of the European Respiratory Society

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundLung function during childhood is an important predictor of subsequent health and disease. Understanding patterns of lung function and development of airflow limitation through childhood is necessary to inform lung function trajectories in relation to health and chronic airway disease. We aimed to derive trajectories of airflow limitation from childhood (age 5-8 years) into early adulthood (age 20-26 years) using repeated spirometry data from birth cohorts.

methodsIn this study, we drew forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV

findingsThe discovery population included 8114 participants: 4710 from ALSPAC, 808 from IOW, 586 from MAAS, and 2010 from BAMSE and was modelled into one of four lung function trajectories that showed normal airflow (6555 [80·8%] of 8114 people), persistent airflow obstruction (1280 [15·8%]), worsening airflow obstruction (161 [2·0%]), and improved airflow obstruction (118 [1·5%]). Both improvement in and worsening airflow obstruction by early adulthood were seen from all initial severity levels. Whereas improvement in airflow obstruction was more prominent between middle childhood and adolescence (57·8%) than between adolescence and early adulthood (13·4%), worsening airflow obstruction was more prominent between adolescence and early adulthood (61·5%) than between middle childhood and adolescence (32·6%). Among current wheezers, higher BMI was associated with a lower relative risk of joining the trajectory with improvement in airflow obstruction (RRR 0·69 [95% CI 0·49-0·95]), whereas among non-wheezers, higher BMI increased the relative risk of being in the improved airflow obstruction trajectory (1·38 [1·04-1·85]). A higher BMI at first lung function assessment was associated with a higher relative risk of joining the trajectory for improvement in airflow obstruction trajectory in participants with low birthweight and no current asthma diagnosis (RRR 2·44 [1·17-5·12]); by contrast, higher BMI is associated with a lower relative risk of joining the trajectory with improvement in airflow obstruction among those with low birthweight and current asthma diagnosis (0·37 [0·18-0·76]). Results in replication cohorts (n=1337) were consistent with those in the discovery cohort.

interpretationWorsening and improvement in airflow limitation from school age to adulthood might occur at all ages and all airflow obstruction severity levels. Interventions to optimise healthy weight, including tackling overweight and obesity (particularly among children with wheezing) as well as treating underweight among non-wheezers, could help to improve lung health across the lifespan.

fundingUK Medical Research Council and CADSET European Respiratory Society Clinical Research Collaboration.

Indexed as

LungAdolescentAdultAsthmaBirth CohortChildChild, PreschoolFemaleForced Expiratory VolumeHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleSpirometryUnited KingdomVital CapacityYoung Adult

Identifiers

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.