ArticleBMC musculoskeletal disorders2025
Development of a predictive model for post-surgical chronic pain: a retrospective analysis of calcaneal fracture patients.
Article in BMC musculoskeletal disorders, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Healthcare professionals' perspectives on the utility of chronic postsurgical pain prediction profiles in perioperative care: a qualitative study.Journal of anesthesia, analgesia and critical care · 2026Article
- Development and Internal Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Acute Moderate-to-Severe Postoperative Pain After Achilles Tendon Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Journal of pain research · 2026Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundChronic pain following calcaneal fracture surgery substantially diminishes patients' quality of life, yet effective risk prediction tools remain scarce. This study aimed to develop and validate a reliable predictive model for assessing the risk of chronic pain development after calcaneal fracture surgery.
methodsThis retrospective analysis examined 398 patients who underwent calcaneal fracture surgery between January 2022 and July 2023. Patients were randomly allocated into model development (n = 280) and validation (n = 118) cohorts. Independent risk factors were identified through multivariate logistic regression analysis to construct the prediction model. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.
resultsThe study identified several independent predictors of postoperative chronic pain: body mass index (BMI) (OR:1.10, 95%CI:1.02-1.19, P = 0.014), operative duration (OR:1.01, 95%CI:1.00-1.02, P = 0.019), surgical approach, and Böhler angle (OR:1.03, 95%CI:1.00-1.06, P = 0.025). The predictive model demonstrated good discriminative ability in both development and validation cohorts, with AUC values of 0.691 (95%CI:0.63-0.75) and 0.655 (95%CI:0.56-0.77), respectively. Calibration plots showed strong agreement between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes.
conclusionOur newly developed predictive model, incorporating BMI, operative duration, surgical approach, and Böhler angle, effectively predicts the risk of chronic pain following calcaneal fracture surgery. This tool provides valuable guidance for clinicians in conducting individualized risk assessments and implementing targeted preventive strategies.
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