Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39972226›Full record

ReviewNature2025

Artificial intelligence for modelling infectious disease epidemics.

Moritz U G Kraemer, Joseph L-H Tsui, Serina Y Chang, Spyros Lytras, Mark P Khurana, Samantha Vanderslott, Sumali Bajaj, Neil Scheidwasser, Jacob Liam Curran-Sebastian, Elizaveta Semenova and 31 more

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Nature, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 70 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
70citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

70 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Drug sales data for gastrointestinal infections surveillance: a systematic review up to 2025.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026
    Pooled it
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  16. Balancing innovation and risk: artificial intelligence in travel medicine.Tropical diseases, travel medicine and vaccines · 2026
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10 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

41 authors.

Moritz U G Kraemer *Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. moritz.kraemer@biology.ox.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-8838-7147
Joseph L-H Tsui *Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Serina Y Chang *Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4253-1016
Spyros LytrasDivision of Systems Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
Mark P KhuranaSection of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Samantha VanderslottPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8685-7758
Sumali BajajDepartment of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Neil ScheidwasserSection of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Jacob Liam Curran-SebastianSection of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Elizaveta SemenovaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8271-2575
Mengyan ZhangDepartment of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
H Juliette T UnwinSchool of Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9120-4003
Oliver J WatsonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2374-0741
Cathal MillsPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Abhishek DasguptaPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4420-0656
Luca FerrettiPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Samuel V ScarpinoInstitute for Experiential AI, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5716-2770
Etien KouaWorld Health Organization Regional Office for Africa, Brazzaville, Congo.
Oliver MorganWHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence, Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9543-3778
Houriiyah TegallyCentre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School for Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Ulrich PaquetAfrican Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) South Africa, Muizenberg, Cape Town, South Africa.
Loukas MoutsianasGenomics England, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5453-345X
Christophe FraserPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Neil M FergusonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1154-8093
Eric J TopolScripps Research, La Jolla, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1478-4729
David A DuchêneSection of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0002-5479-1974
Tanja StadlerDepartment of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zürich, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-6431-535X
Patricia KingoriThe Ethox Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Michael J ParkerPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7054-4711
Francesca DominiciDepartment of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9382-0141
Nigel ShadboltDepartment of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Marc A SuchardDepartment of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9818-479X
Oliver RatmannDepartment of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Seth FlaxmanDepartment of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-2477-4217
Edward C HolmesSchool of Medical Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-9596-3552
Manuel Gomez-RodriguezMax Planck Institute for Software Systems, Kaiserslautern, Germany.
Bernhard SchölkopfMax Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems and ELLIS Institute Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8177-0925
Christl A DonnellyPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0195-2463
Oliver G PybusPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Simon CauchemezMathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, U1332 INSERM, UMR2000 CNRS, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0001-9186-4549
Samir Bhatt *Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark. samir.bhatt@sund.ku.dk.ORCID 0000-0002-0891-4611

Funding

Scripps Clinical and Translational Science HubUM1TR004407 · NCATS · SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, THE · PI Eric Jeffrey Topol · 2023 to 2026
$24.2M
University of Washington Arboviral Research Network (UWARN)U01AI151698 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Michael Gale, PETER MACGARR RABINOWITZ · 2020 to 2026
$13.3M
eLwazi Open Science Data Platform for AfricaU2CEB032224 · NIBIB · UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN · PI MULDER, NICOLA · 2021 to 2025
$11.2M
CAFE: a Research Coordinating Center to Convene, Accelerate, Foster, and Expand the Health and Extreme Weather Research CommunityU24ES035309 · NIEHS · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI Francesca Dominici, Amrutasri Ashwini Nori-Sarma · 2023 to 2026
$8.9M
Role of Data Streams In Informing Infection Dynamics in Africa- INFORM AfricaU54TW012041 · FIC · INSTITUTE OF HUMAN VIROLOGY · PI Alash'le G. Abimiku, Tulio de Paiva Nazareth Andrade De Oliveira · 2021 to 2026
$6.9M
Fast and flexible Bayesian phylogenetics via modern machine learningR01AI162611 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI MATSEN, FREDERICK ALBERT · 2021 to 2025
$3.8M
Long-term impact of universal treatment and dolutegravir on population HIV virologic and incidence outcomes in Africa: The LONGVIEW StudyR01AI155080 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI GRABOWSKI, MARY KATHRYN · 2021 to 2024
$2.5M
Statistical Innovation to Integrate Sequences and Phenotypes for Scalable Phylodynamic InferenceR01AI153044 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI Marc A. Suchard · 2021 to 2026
$2.4M
FIC NIH HHS U54 TW012041NCATS NIH HHS UM1 TR004407NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI153044NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI155080NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI162611NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI151698NIBIB NIH HHS U2C EB032224NIEHS NIH HHS U24 ES035309Wellcome TrustWorld Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Infectious disease threats to individual and public health are numerous, varied and frequently unexpected. Artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies, which are already supporting human decision making in economics, medicine and social science, have the potential to transform the scope and power of infectious disease epidemiology. Here we consider the application to infectious disease modelling of AI systems that combine machine learning, computational statistics, information retrieval and data science. We first outline how recent advances in AI can accelerate breakthroughs in answering key epidemiological questions and we discuss specific AI methods that can be applied to routinely collected infectious disease surveillance data. Second, we elaborate on the social context of AI for infectious disease epidemiology, including issues such as explainability, safety, accountability and ethics. Finally, we summarize some limitations of AI applications in this field and provide recommendations for how infectious disease epidemiology can harness most effectively current and future developments in AI.

Indexed as

Artificial IntelligenceCommunicable DiseasesEpidemicsEpidemiological ModelsData ScienceHumansMachine Learning

Identifiers

PMID39972226
PMCPMC11987553

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.