Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39972057›Full record

ArticleMolecular psychiatry2025

Using twin-pairs to assess potential bias in polygenic prediction of externalising behaviours across development.

Joanna K Bright, Christopher Rayner, Ze Freeman, Helena M S Zavos, Yasmin I Ahmadzadeh, Essi Viding, Tom A McAdams

Abstract readTwin Study
In one paragraph

Article in Molecular psychiatry, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Joanna K BrightSocial, Genetic & Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Kings College London, London, UK. Joanna.bright@kcl.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0695-0491
Christopher RaynerSocial, Genetic & Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Kings College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2950-343X
Ze FreemanDepartment of Psychology, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Kings College London, London, UK.
Helena M S ZavosDepartment of Psychology, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Kings College London, London, UK.
Yasmin I AhmadzadehSocial, Genetic & Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Kings College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1333-1661
Essi Viding *Division of Psychology and Language Sciences, University College London, London, UK.
Tom A McAdams *Social, Genetic & Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Kings College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6825-3499

Funding

Colorado Adoption/Twin Study of Lifespan behavioral development & cognitive aging (CATSLife2)R01AG046938 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO · PI REYNOLDS, CHANDRA A, WADSWORTH, SALLY J · 2015 to 2024
$18.5M
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG046938Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust (Wellcome) 220382/Z/20/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Prediction from polygenic scores may be confounded by sources of passive gene-environment correlation (rGE; e.g. population stratification, assortative mating, and environmentally mediated effects of parental genotype on child phenotype). Using genomic data from 10 000 twin pairs, we asked whether polygenic scores from the most recent externalising genome-wide association study predict conduct problems, ADHD symptomology and callous-unemotional traits, and whether these predictions are biased by rGE. We ran regression models including within-family and between-family polygenic scores, to separate the direct genetic influence on a trait from environmental influences that correlate with genes (indirect genetic effects). Findings suggested that this externalising polygenic score is a good index of direct genetic influence on conduct and ADHD-related symptoms across development, with minimal bias from rGE, although the polygenic score predicted less variance in CU traits. Post-hoc analyses showed some indirect genetic effects acting on a common factor indexing stability of conduct problems across time and contexts.

Indexed as

Multifactorial InheritanceAdolescentAttention Deficit Disorder with HyperactivityChildConduct DisorderFemaleGene-Environment InteractionGenetic Predisposition to DiseaseGenome-Wide Association StudyGenotypeHumansMalePhenotypePolymorphism, Single NucleotideTwinsTwins, Dizygotic

Identifiers

PMID39972057
PMCPMC12185310

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.