ArticleBMJ global health2025
Estimating the burden of mpox among MSM in South Africa.
Article in BMJ global health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prevalence of mpox infection among men who have sex with men: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2026Pooled it
- A HIV status-stratified analysis of Mpox risk factors among MSM in Mainland China over two years (2023-2024).BMC public health · 2026Article
- Policy impact of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team: global perspective and United Kingdom case study.Health research policy and systems · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Despite seeing few cases during the 2022-2023 mpox global outbreak, reports in May-July 2024 of 22 cases among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) in South Africa, including three deaths, have raised concerns about under-reported community transmission. We used a Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the true epidemic size, considering the increased severity of mpox among MSM living with advanced HIV, documented over-representation of people living with HIV among mpox cases and HIV prevalence in South Africa. We estimate that there have been between 220 and 450 cases among MSM LHIV in South Africa, with a total of 290-560 cases among all MSM. We provide an upper bound of 750-1600 cases as a sensitivity analysis where the prevalence of HIV among mpox patients is the same as population prevalence among MSM in South Africa. Estimates in both scenarios suggest a substantial number of undetected cases, with case ascertainment rates estimated between 1% and 8%. Our findings underscore the need for enhanced surveillance, targeted public health interventions and awareness campaigns to mitigate the outbreak's impact at a population level.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.