Future climate change and the distributional shift of the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus.

Interactions among humans, livestock, and wildlife within disturbed ecosystems, such as those impacted by climate change, can facilitate pathogen spillover transmission and increase disease emergence risks. The study of future climate change impacts on the distribution of free-ranging bats is therefore relevant for forecasting potential disease burden. This study used current and future climate data and historic occurrence locations of the vampire bat species Desmodus rotundus, a reservoir of the rabies virus to assess the potential impacts of climate change on disease reservoir distribution. Analyses included a comprehensive comparison of different climate change periods, carbon emission scenarios, and global circulation models (GCMs) on final model outputs. Models revealed that, although climatic scenarios and GCMs used have a significant influence on model outputs, there was a consistent signal of range expansion across the future climates analyzed. Areas suitable for D. rotundus range expansion include the southern United States and south-central portions of Argentina and Chile. Certain areas in the Amazon Rainforest, which currently rests at the geographic center of D. rotundus' range, may become climatically unsuitable for this species within the context of niche conservatism. While the impacts of rabies virus transmitted by D. rotundus on livestock are well known, an expansion of D. rotundus into novel areas may impact new mammalian species and livestock with unexpected consequences. Some areas in the Americas may benefit from an assessment of their preparedness to deal with an expected D. rotundus range expansion.