Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39962430›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2025

Age-period-cohort study of active pulmonary tuberculosis in eastern China: analysis of 15-year surveillance data.

Dan Luo, Fengying Wang, Songhua Chen, Yu Zhang, Wei Wang, Qian Wu, Yuxiao Ling, Yang Li, Yiqing Zhou, Kui Liu and 1 more

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Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
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2citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Dan Luo *School of Public Health, Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Fengying Wang *Department of Tuberculosis and AIDS Control and Prevention, Jinhua Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinhua, Zhejiang, China.
Songhua ChenDepartment of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Yu ZhangDepartment of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Wei WangDepartment of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Qian WuDepartment of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Yuxiao LingSchool of Public Health, Health Science Center, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China.
Yang LiSchool of Public Health, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Yiqing ZhouSchool of Public Health, Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.
Kui LiuDepartment of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China. kliu@cdc.zj.cn.
Bin ChenDepartment of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China. bchen@cdc.zj.cn.

Funding

National-Zhejiang Health commission Major S&T Project Grant No. WKJ-ZJ-2118Zhejiang Provincial Medical and Health Project 2021KY618
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTuberculosis remains a major public health challenge worldwide. This study aimed to determine the long-term trends in the notification rate of tuberculosis in Zhejiang Province, and to assess the potential independent risks associated with age, time period, and birth cohort.

methodsData on all pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2022 were collected from the Tuberculosis Information Management System. Long-term trends in the notification rate and independent risks associated with quantitatively decomposed variables were determined using joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort model.

resultsBetween 2008 and 2022, a total of 323,745 PTB cases were notified in Zhejiang Province. Overall, the notification rate declined, with notable turning points in 2010 and 2019. Net drift analysis revealed an average annual decrease of 5.7% (95% CI: -6.8%, -4.6%; P < 0.01), with faster declines among males than females. Age effects showed peaks in notification rates among people aged 15-29 and 65-74. Period effects peaked during 2008-2012 (RR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.3, 1.5; P < 0.01). Cohort effects indicated decreasing risks in later birth cohorts, with the highest risk observed in the 1928-1932 birth cohort (RR = 11.0, 95% CI: 7.2, 16.8; P < 0.01) and relative protective effects in cohorts born after 1978-1982.

conclusionsNotification rates of PTB declined consistently across various age groups in Zhejiang Province. Young individuals aged 15-29 and older individuals aged 65-74 were identified as high-risk groups requiring active intervention. Additionally, pre-1978 birth cohorts had a relatively higher risk of PTB. These findings provided valuable insights into the age, period, and birth cohort characteristics of patients with PTB in Zhejiang Province, aiding relevant authorities in formulating appropriate policies and implementing targeted preventive control measures.

Indexed as

Population SurveillanceTuberculosis, PulmonaryAdolescentAdultAgedAge DistributionAge FactorsChildChinaCohort StudiesDisease NotificationFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk FactorsAge-period-cohort modelJoinpoint regression analysisNotification ratePulmonary tuberculosis

Identifiers

PMID39962430
PMCPMC11834198

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.