ArticleJournal of neurology, neurosurgery, and psychiatry2025
Predictors of early disability accumulation in newly diagnosed multiple sclerosis: clinical, imaging and cerebrospinal fluid measures.
Article in Journal of neurology, neurosurgery, and psychiatry, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Assessing the Relative Importance of Imaging and Serum Biomarkers in Capturing Disability, Cognitive Impairment, and Clinical Progression in Multiple Sclerosis.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2026Article
- Biomarkers of Progression Independent of Relapse Activity-Can We Actually Measure It Yet?International journal of molecular sciences · 2025Review
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundA growing arsenal of treatment options for relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) emphasises the need for early prognostic biomarkers. While evidence for individual markers exists, comprehensive analyses at the time of diagnosis are sparse.
methodsBrain and spinal cord lesion numbers, cerebrospinal fluid parameters, initial symptoms, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score were determined at the time of diagnosis. Confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), defined as a sustained EDSS increase over 6 months, was determined during a 5-year follow-up. All-subsets multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of CDA. Model performance was assessed via receiver operating characteristic analysis, and individual risks were calculated. Analyses were repeated with progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) as an outcome.
results113/417 (27.1%) people with RMS experienced CDA on follow-up. Intrathecal IgG synthesis, a higher number of spinal cord lesions, age and polysymptomatic manifestation were identified as independent predictors of CDA. The resulting prediction model yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75 with a 95% CI of 0.70 to 0.80. Individuals exceeding the optimal thresholds for the three most significant predictors had a 61.8% likelihood of experiencing CDA, whereas those below all three thresholds had a CDA rate of 4.5%. The only significant baseline predictor differentiating PIRA from relapse-associated worsening was a higher number of spinal cord lesions (AUC=0.64, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.74).
conclusionsIntrathecal IgG synthesis, spinal cord lesion number, age and polysymptomatic manifestation are independent predictors of early CDA in newly diagnosed RMS.
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