Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39957790›Full record

ArticleNPJ climate and atmospheric science2025

Decreasing aerosols increase the European summer diurnal temperature range.

Carla M Roesch, Emilie Fons, Andrew P Ballinger, Jakob Runge, Gabriele C Hegerl

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in NPJ climate and atmospheric science, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Carla M RoeschSchool of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-6837-6210
Emilie FonsInstitute of Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0003-3824-4150
Andrew P BallingerSchool of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-3704-1976
Jakob RungeInstitute of Data Science, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Jena, Germany.
Gabriele C HegerlSchool of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-4159-1295

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The diurnal temperature range (DTR), the difference between daily maximum and minimum temperature, is important for the impact of extreme temperatures, but despite physical links to aerosol forcing previous studies have struggled to attribute observed DTR changes to aerosols. Using causal inference, we can clearly identify aerosols as a driver of European DTR change since 1940. Following a decrease from the 1940s, since the 1980s the European DTR has increased by about 0.5K due to a reduction in European aerosol emissions leading to cooler nights relative to days. Agreement between causal effects estimated from observations with those estimated for two CMIP6 models evaluates the models' microphysical and radiative parameterizations. From causal effects, we also derive effective radiative forcing estimates of aerosols on surface shortwave during European summer, which amount to [-1.7; -1.5] Wm

Indexed as

Atmospheric scienceAttribution

Identifiers

PMID39957790
PMCPMC11821512

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.