Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39957244›Full record

ArticleChronic respiratory disease

Validation of a clinical prediction model for falls in community-dwelling older adults with COPD: A preliminary analysis.

Khang T Nguyen, Cindy Ellerton, Joshua Wald, Natya Raghavan, Luciana G Macedo, Dina Brooks, Roger Goldstein, Marla K Beauchamp

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Chronic respiratory disease. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Trial
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Khang T NguyenSchool of Rehabilitation Science, Faculty of Health Science, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-1366-7456
Cindy EllertonDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, West Park Healthcare Centre, Toronto, Canada.
Joshua WaldFirestone Institute for Respiratory Health, St Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton, Hamilton, Canada.
Natya RaghavanFirestone Institute for Respiratory Health, St Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton, Hamilton, Canada.
Luciana G MacedoSchool of Rehabilitation Science, Faculty of Health Science, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
Dina BrooksSchool of Rehabilitation Science, Faculty of Health Science, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
Roger GoldsteinDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, West Park Healthcare Centre, Toronto, Canada.
Marla K BeauchampSchool of Rehabilitation Science, Faculty of Health Science, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-2843-388X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPeople with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at a higher risk of falls. This preliminary study aims to externally validate a previously developed clinical prediction model for falls in community-dwelling older adults with COPD.

methodsThis was a secondary analysis of a 12-month prospective cohort study. Older adults (≥60 years) with COPD, who reported a fall in the past year and/or had balance concerns, were tracked for 12-month future falls. Baseline predictors included 12-month history of ≥2 falls, total chronic conditions, and Timed Up and Go Dual-Task (TUG-DT) test scores. Model performance was assessed for discrimination (c-statistic), calibration (E:O, CITL, and calibration slope), and clinical value (decision curve analysis).

resultsThe study included 89 participants (average age 73 ± 9 years; 83 females; FEV

conclusionsA 12-month history of ≥2 falls, higher total chronic conditions, and worse TUG-DT test scores, predicts falls in community-dwelling older adults with COPD. Larger studies are needed before clinical application.

Indexed as

Accidental FallsPulmonary Disease, Chronic ObstructiveAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleGeriatric AssessmentHumansIndependent LivingMaleMiddle AgedPostural BalanceProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsCOPDexternal validationfallsolder adultsprediction model

Identifiers

PMID39957244
PMCPMC11831686

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.