Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39949319›Full record

ArticleEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2025

Inferring transmission risk of respiratory viral infection from the viral load kinetics of SARS-CoV-2, England, 2020 to 2021 and influenza A virus, Hong Kong, 2008 to 2012.

Jakob Jonnerby, Joe Fenn, Seran Hakki, Jie Zhou, Kieran J Madon, Aleksandra Koycheva, Sean Nevin, Rhia Kundu, Michael A Crone, Timesh D Pillay and 14 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Letter to the editor: Viral load decline time offers theoretical insight rather than practical value.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025
    Article
  4. Author's response: Viral load decline time offers theoretical insight rather than practical value.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors.

Jakob JonnerbyNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Joe FennNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Seran HakkiNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Jie ZhouSection of Virology, Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Kieran J MadonNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Aleksandra KoychevaNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Sean NevinNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Rhia KunduNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Michael A CroneSection of Structural and Synthetic Biology, Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Timesh D PillayNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Shazaad AhmadDepartment of Virology, Manchester Medical Microbiology Partnership, Manchester Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre, Manchester, United Kingdom.
Nieves DerquiNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Emily ConibearNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Robert VarroNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Constanta LucaNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Paul S FreemontSection of Structural and Synthetic Biology, Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Graham P TaylorSection of Virology, Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Maria ZambonUK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom.
Wendy S BarclaySection of Virology, Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Jake DunningNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Neil M FergusonNIHR Health Protection Research Unit Modelling and Health Economics, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Benjamin J CowlingWorld Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Ajit LalvaniNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
ATACCC Study InvestigatorsThe members of the ATACCC Study Investigators are acknowledged at the end of the article.

Funding

NIAID NIH HHS HHSN266200700005CNIAID NIH HHS N01 AI070005
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BackgroundInfectiousness of respiratory viral infections is quantified as plaque forming units (PFU), requiring resource-intensive viral culture that is not routinely performed. We hypothesised that RNA viral load (VL) decline time (e-folding time) in people might serve as an alternative marker of infectiousness.AimThis study's objective was to evaluate the association of RNA

Indexed as

COVID-19Influenza A virusInfluenza, HumanSARS-CoV-2Viral LoadAdultAgedEnglandFemaleHong KongHumansMaleMiddle AgedRNA, ViralRNA, Viralclearance timedecline ratedecline timeinfectiousnessinfluenza ASARS-CoV-2transmission riskviral load kinetics

Identifiers

PMID39949319
PMCPMC11914967

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.