ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2025
Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches.
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In one paragraph
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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25citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
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What it found
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Comprehensive overview of artificial intelligence in surgery: a systematic review and perspectives.Pflugers Archiv : European journal of physiology · 2025Pooled it
- Periodontitis Risk Assessment and Prevention Planning: Comparative Study of Multimodal Large Language Models and Periodontist Evaluations.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Article
- Posterior Communicating Artery Aneurysm Microsurgery: PComA-CORE, an Anatomy-Informed Explainable AI Framework for Complexity, Neurovascular Risk, Oculomotor Recovery and Functional Outcome.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Algorithmic Prognostication in Female Oncofertility Counseling: Ethical Challenges of Bias, Autonomy, and Predictive Uncertainty.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Mortality risk estimation for autistic older adults: comparing novel machine-learning derived weights versus standard weights for the Charlson Comorbidity Index.Journal of comparative effectiveness research · 2026Article
- Prediction Error in Quality-Adjusted Life Years in Economic Evaluations of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors: A Comparison Based on Projected and Observed Updated Survival.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2026Article
- Critical appraisal of fairness metrics for artificial intelligence-based clinical prediction models: a scoping review.The Lancet. Digital health · 2026Article
- Factors Influencing Physician Adherence to Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment Model Recommendations: A Best-Worst Scaling.American journal of cardiovascular drugs : drugs, devices, and other interventions · 2026Article
- Temporal Screening of High-Risk Food Service Inspections in New York State, 2023-2025: A Case Study Using Multimodal Evidential Learning.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Scalable discovery and validation of order-specific electronic health record event trajectories for interpretable adverse-outcome risk estimation.Journal of biomedical informatics · 2026Article
- A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models - part 3: continuous outcomes.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2026Article
- Risk Prediction in Cardio-Oncology: Conceptual and Methodological Considerations: JACC: CardioOncology State-of-the-Art Review.JACC. CardioOncology · 2026Review
- Modeling Individual-Level Uncertainty From Missing Data in Multifactorial Breast Cancer Risk Prediction.JCO precision oncology · 2026Article
- Prediction models developed using artificial intelligence: similar predictive performances with highly varying predictions for individuals - an illustration in deep vein thrombosis.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2026Article
- Development and validation of the CARE-DM model to predict the cardiovascular risk in older persons with type 2 diabetes.European journal of preventive cardiology · 2026Article
- Predicting Three-Year Survival in Patients Receiving Maintenance Dialysis: An External Validation and Updated Multivariable Prediction Model for iChoose Kidney in Ontario, Canada.Canadian journal of kidney health and disease · 2026Article
- Mortality prediction with adjuvant tamoxifen in breast cancer: Machine learning-integrated explainable artificial intelligence and Bayesian model results.ADMET & DMPK · 2026Article
- Applications of Artificial Intelligence Technologies in Nursing for Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases: A Scoping Review.Journal of nursing management · 2026Article
- Resolving latent safety threats identified through in situ simulation: a multicentre mixed-methods study.Advances in simulation (London, England) · 2025Article
- Observational
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
20 authors.
Richard D RileyDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK r.d.riley@bham.ac.uk.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8699-0735
Gary S CollinsCentre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Laura KirtonCancer Research UK Clinical Trials Unit, School of Medical Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Kym Ie SnellDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Joie EnsorDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Rebecca WhittleDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Paula DhimanCentre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Maarten van SmedenJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Xiaoxuan LiuNational Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK.
Joseph AldermanNational Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK.
Krishnarajah NirantharakumarDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Jay Manson-WhittonPeterhouse, Trumpington Street, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Andrew J WestwoodBone Cancer Research Trust, Leeds, UK.
Jean-Baptiste CazierFrancis Crick Institute, London, UK.
Karel G M MoonsJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Glen P MartinDivision of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK.
Matthew SperrinDivision of Informatics, Imaging and Data Science, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK.
Alastair K DennistonNational Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK.
Frank E HarrellDepartment of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, USA.
Lucinda ArcherDepartment of Applied Health Sciences, School of Health Sciences, College of Medicine and Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.