Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39947238›Full record

ArticleEuropace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology2025

Global, regional, and national burden of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter from 1990 to 2021: sex differences and global burden projections to 2046-a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Siyuan Tan, Jiabao Zhou, Tevit Veang, Qiuzhen Lin, Qiming Liu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 70 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
70citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

70 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Practical guide on the use of the PulseSelect pulsed field ablation system for atrial fibrillation ablation procedures.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Guideline
  2. Long-term efficacy and safety of left atrial appendage closure vs. oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Pooled it
  3. Clinical outcomes of continuing vs. discontinuing oral anticoagulation after atrial fibrillation ablation: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies and randomized controlled trials.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Pooled it
  4. Comparative evaluation of left atrial appendage occlusion and oral anticoagulation: a Bayesian meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Pooled it
  5. Pooled it
  6. Impact of catheter ablation timing according to duration of atrial fibrillation history on arrhythmia recurrences and clinical outcomes: a meta-analysis.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
    Pooled it
  7. Cognitive function and telemedicine-based, village doctor-led care for atrial fibrillation.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Trial
  8. Cryoballoon ablation vs. antiarrhythmic drug therapy as initial treatment for persistent atrial fibrillation: the multicentre randomized CEPAF trial.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Trial
  9. Population reach and participation rate in opportunistic vs. systematic atrial fibrillation screening: STROKESTOP III.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Trial
  10. Sphingomyelin as a key negative mediator in atrial fibrillation via lipid profiling analysis and functional identification.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Article
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  16. Monitoring of ventricular rate in atrial fibrillation patients through an app based on pulse-plethysmography.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Article
  17. Risks of discontinuation of anticoagulation after atrial fibrillation ablation in high-risk patients.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Review

10 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Siyuan TanDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, No. 139, Renmin Middle Road, Changsha, Hunan 410011, China.
Jiabao ZhouDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, No. 139, Renmin Middle Road, Changsha, Hunan 410011, China.ORCID 0009-0004-8547-9491
Tevit VeangDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, No. 139, Renmin Middle Road, Changsha, Hunan 410011, China.ORCID 0009-0001-8310-5670
Qiuzhen LinDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, No. 139, Renmin Middle Road, Changsha, Hunan 410011, China.
Qiming LiuDepartment of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, No. 139, Renmin Middle Road, Changsha, Hunan 410011, China.ORCID 0000-0002-5213-2668

Funding

Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China 2024JJ6593Key Project of Hunan Provincial Science and Technology Innovation 2020SK1013National Natural Science Foundation of China 82070356
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsAtrial fibrillation and atrial flutter (AF/AFL) are critical global health concerns, yet studies on burden trends and sex differences remain limited. This study aims to investigate the global burden trends of AF/AFL, with an in-depth analysis of differences between sexes and future trends, in order to address gaps in the current research field. METHODS AND

resultsThis study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, applying methods such as age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression models to evaluate trends and sex differences in the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of AF/AFL among individuals aged 30 and above from 1990 to 2021, and employed Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis to predict future trends from 2022 to 2046. In 2021, AF/AFL affected around 52.6 million people globally, with significant increases in cases, deaths, and DALYs since 1990. While the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) remained stable, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) slightly declined, and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) increased. Moreover, there were significant differences in the disease burden between male and female patients. Males had higher prevalence and DALYs, with older age contributing to higher rates. Key risk factors included high systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol use, with female patients exhibiting a higher age-standardized rates associated with elevated BMI compared with their male counterparts. Bayesian age-period-cohort predicted stable ASPR and ASIR in males but rising rates in females, with ASMR expected to decline for both sexes.

conclusionThe global burden of AF/AFL is rising, particularly among women, and in low-socio-demographic index regions. This underscores the urgent need for targeted prevention strategies and optimized management of modifiable risk factors, with a specific focus on these vulnerable groups.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationAtrial FlutterGlobal HealthAdultAgedAged, 80 and overDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal Burden of DiseaseHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceRisk FactorsSex DistributionAtrial fibrillation and atrial flutterFuture predictionGlobal disease burdenSex differences

Identifiers

PMID39947238
PMCPMC11879048

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.