ArticleJournal of Crohn's & colitis2025
Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of inflammatory bowel disease in the Netherlands: development and external validation of machine learning models.
Article in Journal of Crohn's & colitis, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Patient Perspectives to Inform Co-creation of Wearable-Derived Digital Biomarkers for Early Flare Detection and Management in IBD: A Survey-Based Study.Digestive diseases and sciences · 2026Article
- Review
- All-cause and cause-specific mortality in inflammatory bowel disease across the biologic era: a population-based matched cohort study.Journal of Crohn's & colitis · 2026Article
- Artificial Intelligence in Population-Level Gastroenterology and Hepatology: A Comprehensive Review of Public Health Applications and Quantitative Impact.Digestive diseases and sciences · 2026Review
- What do patients and informal caregivers value in IBD care? A narrative inquiry.BMC health services research · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimsLarge registries are promising tools to study the epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models to identify IBD cases in administrative data, aiming to determine the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of IBD in the Netherlands.
methodsWe developed machine learning models for administrative data to identify IBD cases and classify them on subtype and incidence year. Models were developed in a population-based cohort and externally validated in a hospital cohort. Models were evaluated on Brier score, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration, and accuracy. The best models were used to determine the epidemiology of IBD in the Netherlands between 2013 and 2020.
resultsFor identifying IBD cases the random forest model was best (AUC: 0.97, 95% CI [0.96; 0.97]). The gradient-boosted trees model for subtype was best (accuracy: 0.95, 95% CI [0.94; 0.95]) as was the random forest model for incidence year (0.88, 95% CI [0.86; 0.89]). The prevalence of IBD in the Netherlands was 577.6 (95% CI [566.7; 586.2]) per 100 000 on December 31, 2020, with varying prevalence across the Netherlands. Incidence of IBD was 20.1 (95% CI [18.0; 22.3]) per 100 000 in 2020 and stable over time. Mortality rates of IBD patients rose over time and were 11.6 (95% CI [10.5; 11.8]) per 1000 in 2020 as compared to 9.5 in the general population.
conclusionInflammatory bowel disease cases can be accurately identified using administrative data. The prevalence of IBD in the Netherlands is increasing slower than expected, suggesting a trend towards the epidemiological stage of Prevalence Equilibrium.
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Registered trials
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