Global, regional, and national burden of liver cancer due to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, 1990-2021: a multi-model trend analysis and forecasting study.

backgroundNon-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its advanced form, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), significantly contribute to the increasing incidence of liver cancer due to NASH (NALC), emphasizing the urgent need to address the associated global health burden.

methodsUsing the Global Burden of Disease 2021 dataset, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates of NALC and NAFLD from 1990 to 2021 across 204 countries. The Joinpoint model, age-period-cohort modeling, decomposition analysis, and frontier analysis were used to assess trends, identify contributing factors, and evaluate health inequities. Projections for future incidence were made using Nordpred and Bayesian age-period-cohort models.

resultsThe global incidence and mortality rates of NALC have increased significantly. Incidence rose from 14,413.92 cases (95% CI 11,470.95-17,854.24) in 1990 to 42,291.37 (95% CI 34,032.64-51,129.45) in 2021. This trend was particularly evident in low-middle SDI countries, while high SDI countries exhibited declining mortality rates despite rising incidence. Population growth was a primary driver of the increased burden in most regions. Projections suggest that NALC incidence may reach 43,525.53 (95% CI 14,169.28-72,881.77) by 2039, particularly among the elderly, highlighting the serious future risks associated with NALC globally.

conclusionThe findings highlight the growing global burden of NALC driven by NAFLD, especially in low- to middle-income regions. Targeted interventions, alongside a deeper understanding and better resource allocation, are essential to mitigate the rising incidence and address the health disparities associated with this expanding public health challenge.