Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39939144›Full record

ArticleArchives of disease in childhood2025

Blood folate level needed for fully effective fortification in the prevention of neural tube defects.

Nicholas J Wald, Stephen H Vale, Jonathan P Bestwick, Joan K Morris

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Archives of disease in childhood, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Folic acid prevention of neural tube defects requires retinoic acid produced by ALDH1L1.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Nicholas J WaldUCL Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK n.wald@ucl.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0003-1676-5908
Stephen H ValeLogical Medical Systems Ltd, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6000-3746
Jonathan P BestwickWolfson Institute of Population Health, Queen Mary University of London, London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3088-8616
Joan K MorrisPopulation Health Research Institute, City St George's University of London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7164-612X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveNeural tube defects (NTDs) are a preventable folate deficiency disorder; increasing folic acid intake through food fortification increases serum and red blood cell folate and reduces the risk of an NTD pregnancy. There is controversy over the blood folate level needed to achieve the full preventive effect because of discrepant study conclusions.

methodsResults from two published studies were used to determine the relationship between serum folate and NTD risk which was compared with the observed result in a randomised trial of folic acid that increased serum folate from 5 ng/mL to 44 ng/mL among women who took a 4 mg daily periconceptional folic acid supplement.

resultsBoth studies showed a proportional (logarithmic) relationship between serum folate and NTD risk without evidence of a folate threshold above which there is no further NTD risk reduction. The suggestion of a threshold is due to the incorrect interpretation of the folate-NTD risk association when plotted on arithmetic scales, which conceals the proportional relationship between the two. Also, both studies accurately estimated the observed result from the randomised trial that achieved a median serum folate level of 44 ng/mL and an 83% preventive effect. This is much higher than has been achieved with current levels of folic acid fortification with serum folate between 10 and 16 ng/mL, resulting in an approximate 20% preventive effect.

conclusionTo achieve fully effective fortification, median population serum folate levels need to be about 44 ng/mL, which would globally prevent about 250 000 NTD cases every year.

Indexed as

Folic AcidFood, FortifiedNeural Tube DefectsDietary SupplementsFemaleFolic Acid DeficiencyHumansPregnancyRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicFolic Acidfolic acid fortificationMicronutrientsneural tube defectsPaediatricsSpina BifidaStatistics

Identifiers

PMID39939144
PMCPMC12320598

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.