ArticleScience advances2025
Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions.
Article in Science advances, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Intensification of East Asian summer extreme precipitation under a net-zero anthropogenic COScience advances · 2026Article
- Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Climate-carbon feedback tradeoff between Arctic and alpine permafrost under warming.Science advances · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
The loss of ecosystem carbon (the sum of vegetation, litter, and soil carbon) may occur in a permafrost region under mitigation pathways, which could reduce the efficiency of carbon dioxide removal. Here, we investigate changes in permafrost under net-zero and negative emissions, based on idealized emission-driven simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. While acting as a net ecosystem carbon sink during most of the positive emission phase, permafrost becomes a net ecosystem carbon source just before reaching net-zero and negative emissions. Permafrost slowly recovers, especially in regions with high organic carbon content, and net ecosystem carbon loss persists until the end of simulations, resulting in a cumulative net ecosystem carbon loss of approximately 14 petagrams of carbon (PgC) in both scenarios. In addition, methane emissions increase under net-zero and negative emissions, due to the irreversibility of the inundated areas. We conclude that the permafrost ecosystem carbon loss may continue under net-zero and negative emissions, which could hinder climate change mitigation efforts.
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Registered trials
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