Global burden and risk factors of male cancers from 1990 to 2021, with forecasts to 2040.

Male cancers, which refers to cancers that occur exclusively in males, is a prevalent type of cancer worldwide, primarily including prostate cancer (PCa) and testicular cancer (TCa). These cancers are significant contributors to the global disease burden. We aim to study specific patterns and trends in male cancers from 1990 to 2021 to inform health policy, allocation of medical resources, and optimization of patient management plans. We analyzed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 on male cancers data for 21 regions and 204 countries to understand better the health burden using prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We tested correlations with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using Spearman's analysis. Decomposition analysis was utilized to dissect the reasons behind changes in epidemiological indicators of the disease, and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling forecasted future disease trends. In 2021, the age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 people for PCa in terms of prevalence, incidence, deaths, and DALYs were 260.05, 34.05, 12.63, and 217.83, respectively, while for TCa were 16.59, 2.24, 0.29, and 13.83, respectively. Compared to 1990, the ratios for PCa changed by 0.19, 0.04, -0.23, and - 0.21, respectively, and for TCa they changed by 0.66, 0.5, -0.14, and - 0.08, respectively. Age analysis revealed a heavier burden of PCa after the age of 70 and a heavier burden of TCa in the 25-34 age group. In regions with High SDI, the ASR for prevalence and incidence were higher, while in regions with Low SDI, the ASR for deaths and DALYs were higher. Aging was the main reason for the increase in PCa, epidemiological change was the main reason for TCa, and population growth was the main reason for death change from 1990 to 2021. Smoking and high calcium diets are risk factors for PCa. For the forecast in 2040, the ASR indicators for PCa in terms of prevalence, incidence, deaths, and DALYs per 100,000 people are projected to be 266.23, 35.21, 9.11, and 176.16, respectively; for TCa cancer they are projected to be 20.63, 2.7, 0.26, and 12.73, respectively. From 1990 to 2021 and with projections to 2040, the prevalence and incidence of global male cancers generally show an upward trend, while deaths and DALYs exhibit a downward trend. Additionally, the higher burden of PCa in individuals over the age of 70 and TCa in the middle-aged group of 25 to 34 years highlights the urgent need for healthcare professionals and policymakers to propose innovative prevention and healthcare strategies based on the existing burden and its new changes, to alleviate the global burden of male cancers.