ArticleBMC public health2025
Spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 cases and tuberculosis in four provinces of Sumatra Islands, Indonesia.
Article in BMC public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic disrupted national tuberculosis programs in high-burden countries. We hypothesize that COVID-19 occurrence had a delayed effect on tuberculosis case reports from the Indonesia Ministry of Health, also known as the tuberculosis case notification. The objectives of this study are: (1) to describe the potential effect of the reported COVID-19 cases on the spatial distribution of tuberculosis in four provinces of Sumatra Islands (Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, and Riau Provinces), Indonesia; (2) to estimate the temporal lag effect of the occurrence of COVID-19 on tuberculosis case notifications.
methodsWe retrieved data from the Indonesian Ministry of Health and the Indonesia COVID-19 Task Force. We also examined the monthly tuberculosis and COVID-19 case notifications. We identified time series clusters of tuberculosis case notifications and used lag non-linear model to assess the delayed effect of the occurrence of COVID-19 cases on tuberculosis case notifications.
resultsThe secondary data included 217,593 tuberculosis case notifications (January 2019 to December 2022) and 373,671 reported COVID-19 cases (January 2020 to December 2022). Time series cluster analysis revealed 5 clusters each for monthly tuberculosis case notifications and monthly reported COVID-19 cases. There was a negative association with a 0-month lag in more than 10,000 reported COVID-19 cases (RR = 0.95, 95%CI: 0.91-0.98).
conclusionsThe findings suggested that Indonesia's national tuberculosis program in four provinces of Sumatra Island was disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lag analysis showed that COVID-19 case occurrence had an immediate effect on tuberculosis case notifications. CLINICAL TRIAL: Not applicable.
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