Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39922210›Full record

ArticleThe lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology2025

Trends in incidence, metastasis, and mortality from thyroid cancer in the USA from 1975 to 2019: a population-based study of age, period, and cohort effects.

Michelle M Chen, Michael Luu, Wendy L Sacks, Lisa Orloff, Lauren P Wallner, Jon Mallen-St Clair, Susan C Pitt, Allen S Ho, Zachary S Zumsteg

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
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  5. Article
  6. Aggressive follicular cell derived thyroid carcinoma: what do you need from the pathologist.Virchows Archiv : an international journal of pathology · 2026
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Michelle M ChenDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Michael LuuDepartment of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Wendy L SacksDivision of Endocrinology, Department of Medicine, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Lisa OrloffDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Lauren P WallnerDepartment of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Jon Mallen-St ClairDepartment of Surgery, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Susan C PittDepartment of Surgery, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Allen S HoDepartment of Surgery, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Zachary S ZumstegDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA. Electronic address: zachary.zumsteg@cshs.org.

Funding

Impact of Emotions on Treatment Decisions About Low-Risk Thyroid CancerK08CA230204 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI PITT, SUSAN C · 2018 to 2023
$1.4M
A Pilot Feasibility Study of an Intervention to Decrease Overtreatment of Low-risk Thyroid CancerR03CA283105 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI PITT, SUSAN C · 2023 to 2024
$168k
NCI NIH HHS K08 CA230204NCI NIH HHS R03 CA283105
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn the USA, the incidence of thyroid cancer increased rapidly for several decades, although some studies have suggested that it has now plateaued or even begun to decrease. We aimed to establish whether incidence in the USA has truly decreased or merely plateaued, and to understand some of the underlying factors driving these changes.

methodsWe conducted a retrospective, population-based study using the National Cancer Institute (NCI)'s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and the National Center for Health Statistics database. We used incidence data from these registries obtained between 1975 and 2019, including patients with a diagnosis of thyroid cancer according to the third edition ICD for Oncology (site code C73.9) and malignant histology. We used the NCI's Joinpoint Regression Program to estimate trends in the incidence over time and age-period-cohort modelling to identify the factors influencing these trends.

findingsOur sample included 91 968 patients with thyroid cancer, of whom 23 467 (25·5%) were men and 68 501 (74·5%) were women. The annual incidence of thyroid cancer increased from 5·0 cases per 100 000 people in 1975 to 14·6 cases per 100 000 people in 2009, before plateauing until 2019. The age-period-cohort analysis suggests that the changes in incidence were primarily due to time period effects. Furthermore, the increase in incidence was most prominent among women aged 40-69 years and men aged 50-79 years. Throughout all time periods, incidence increased with each successive birth cohort among both women and men.

interpretationThe rise and subsequent plateau in the incidence of thyroid cancer in the USA have been primarily driven by time period effects, likely due to changing patterns in diagnostic pressure. Variations in the incidence of thyroid cancer by age, which increased during the time frame of this study, seem to be driven predominantly by overdiagnosis. Although the incidence of thyroid cancer has plateaued, it remains at peak levels, suggesting that overdiagnosis remains a crucial unresolved public health issue. Further work is needed to help limit the current drivers of overdiagnosis and to implement novel solutions aimed at both physicians, patients, and policy makers.

fundingNone.

Indexed as

Thyroid NeoplasmsAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge FactorsCohort EffectFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedMortalityNeoplasm MetastasisRetrospective StudiesSEER ProgramUnited States

Identifiers

PMID39922210
PMCPMC13664682

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.