ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2025
Factors Associated With the Transmission of the Delta Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variant in Households: The Israeli COVID-19 Family Study (ICoFS).
Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Understanding how interpersonal interactions and immunological factors shape severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission in households is crucial for designing control measures. We developed a Bayesian data augmentation transmission model to evaluate the effects of isolation, parental care, and vaccine-induced immunity on Delta variant transmission from the follow-up of 1093 Israeli households (July-August 2021). Among the 2883 household contacts, 1096 (38%) were infected. Children were 38% (95% Credibleconfidence interval [CrI], 7%-81%) more likely to be infected than adults. Isolation measures reduced transmission by 52% (95% CrI, 46%-57%). Transmission was 39% (95% CrI, 11%-76%) higher between children and female adults than between children and male adults. Vaccine effectiveness was 78% (95% CrI, 54%-90%), 85% (95% CrI, 70%-94%), and 73% (95% CrI, 49%-88%), respectively, for 1, 2, and 3 recent vaccine doses (within ≤90 days) but dropped to 18% (95% 95% CrI, -6% to 36%) for 2 doses administered >90 days earlier. Household member interactions significantly shaped transmission, and isolation measures effectively reduced transmission.
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