Observational studyBMJ open2025
Examining the relationship between incidence and mortality for commonly diagnosed cancers in the USA: an observational study using population-based SEER database.
Observational study in BMJ open, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Geographic variation in the impact of novel melanoma therapies on mortality.Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology · 2026Article
- In what clinical settings are the MASAI trial results applicable?Nature reviews. Clinical oncology · 2026Article
- Article
- Privately paid, direct-to-consumer diagnostic testing: let the buyer beware.CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne · 2026Article
- Geospatial Analysis of Breast Cancer Incidence, Mortality, and Access to Screening in Rural and Appalachian Virginia.Journal of Appalachian health · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveIncidence and mortality are fundamental epidemiologic measures of cancer burden, yet few studies have examined individual cancers to determine how these measures correlate across place. We assessed the relationship between incidence and mortality for commonly diagnosed cancers in the USA.
designPopulation-based observational study of US counties. SETTING AND
participantsThe Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database was used to obtain incidence (2000-2016) and mortality (2002-2018) data for the 12 most commonly diagnosed non-haematologic cancers. OUTCOME MEASURES: County-level correlation between cancer incidence and mortality. Cancers were grouped into terciles based on the population-weighted correlation coefficient (r). We also examined the 10 year risk of death, both from the diagnosed cancer and other causes.
resultsCounty-level incidence and mortality were strongly correlated in some cancers, yet uncorrelated in others. Cancers in the high-correlation tercile (r range: 0.96 to 0.78) included lung, stomach, liver and pancreas. For patients with these cancers, the risk of death from the diagnosed cancer was >4-times the risk of death from other causes. The moderate-correlation tercile (r: 0.75 to 0.58) included cancers of the colon, bladder, kidney and uterus. There was little or no relationship between incidence and mortality for cancers in the low-correlation tercile (r: 0.33 to -0.10): melanoma, prostate, breast and thyroid. The risk of death from the diagnosed cancer for these patients was either lower or no different than their risk of death from other causes.
conclusionsFor some cancers in the USA, the fundamental epidemiologic measure of disease frequency-incidence-now has little relationship with cancer death (mortality). Low correlations are most likely explained by differences in diagnostic practice leading to variable amounts of cancer overdiagnosis between different US counties.
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