Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39919100›Full record

ArticlePLoS computational biology2025

Challenging a paradigm: Staggered versus single-pulse mass dog vaccination strategy for rabies elimination.

Brinkley Raynor Bellotti, Elvis W Díaz, Micaela De la Puente-León, Maria T Rieders, Sergio E Recuenco, Michael Z Levy, Ricardo Castillo-Neyra

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS computational biology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Cave dogs around major urban areas threaten rabies elimination program.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Brinkley Raynor BellottiDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0002-5386-414X
Elvis W DíazZoonotic Disease Research Lab, One Health Unit, School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú.
Micaela De la Puente-LeónZoonotic Disease Research Lab, One Health Unit, School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú.
Maria T RiedersOperations, Information and Decisions Department, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
Sergio E RecuencoDepartment of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine San Fernando, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Peru.
Michael Z LevyDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
Ricardo Castillo-NeyraDepartment of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0001-6629-2139

Funding

VMD-PhD Training in Infectious Disease-Related ResearchT32AI070077 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI Michael Lee Atchison · 2008 to 2026
$3.5M
Spatially responsive mass vaccination strategies for urban rabiesR01AI168291 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI Ricardo Castillo Neyra · 2022 to 2026
$3.2M
Control and Prevention of Zoonotic Epidemics in Cities: A Socio-Spatial ApproachK01AI139284 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI CASTILLO NEYRA, RICARDO · 2019 to 2023
$710k
NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI139284NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI168291NIAID NIH HHS T32 AI070077
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundFrom smallpox to poliomyelitis, halting contagion transmission through simultaneous mass vaccination is ubiquitous and often perceived as the only possible solution. But implementing mass vaccination campaigns in large populations within a short period poses many challenges. For example, in Arequipa, Peru, sweeping mass vaccination campaigns conducted yearly over a single weekend have failed to achieve the required 'herd immunity' to halt canine rabies transmission. Contrary to the global paradigm of a simultaneous campaign, the 2022 Arequipa rabies campaign was implemented at the sub-district level (patches), with dates of the campaign staggered across 6 months.

methodsWe constructed a stochastic, metapopulation model to examine how the timing of pulsed vaccination campaigns across patches can affect metapopulation dynamics. We explore general metapopulation dynamics for pulsed vaccinations as well as parameterizing the model for canine rabies in Arequipa, Peru. We simulated how the timing of the planned vaccination campaign, staggered over 6 months versus a single yearly pulse, affected the prospects for regional rabies elimination.

resultsMetapopulation dynamics can affect the efficacy of pulsed vaccination campaigns. In the case of Arequipa, Peru, the planned staggered mass dog vaccination campaign has the potential for local elimination with the tradeoffs of increased time to elimination and increased outbreak size due to metapopulation dynamics.

conclusionsHeterogeneities caused by control strategies enactment at sub-population scales should be accounted for when modeling transmission dynamics. In Arequipa, Peru, although metapopulation dynamics may allow for re-introduction of canine rabies in previously vaccinated patches when mass dog vaccination campaigns are staggered temporally over 6 months, continuous mass vaccination reaching recommended vaccination coverage levels is sufficient to eliminate canine rabies.

Indexed as

Disease EradicationDog DiseasesMass VaccinationRabiesRabies VaccinesAnimalsComputational BiologyComputer SimulationDogsHumansPeruStochastic ProcessesVaccinationRabies Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID39919100
PMCPMC11805426

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.