ArticleAdvances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.)2025
Perspective: Global Burden of Iodine Deficiency: Insights and Projections to 2050 Using XGBoost and SHAP.
Article in Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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65 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- The predictive value of multiple artificial intelligence models in axillary lymph node metastasis of breast cancer detected by ultrasound - a network meta-analysis.Frontiers in oncology · 2026Pooled it
- Effects of different iodine supplementation strategies on thyroid function in iodine-deficient pregnant women: a meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Pooled it
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- Development and Validation of an Interpretable Machine Learning Model to Predict Mortality in Patients With Sepsis-Induced Coagulopathy: Multicenter Cohort Study.JMIR medical informatics · 2026Article
- Global burden of subarachnoid hemorrhage in young adults, 1990-2021: disparities, risk factors, and projections to 2050.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026Article
- Loss of salt iodization harmed child survival and academic achievement in Ethiopia.Nature food · 2026Article
- Global and Regional Burden of Refraction Disorders In Children, Adolescents and Young Adults from 1990 to 2021: Trends, Inequalities and Future Predictions with Machine Learning.Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists) · 2026Article
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- Development and External Validation of an Explainable Machine-Learning Model for Predicting Postoperative Pulmonary Complications in Older Adults Undergoing Degenerative Spine Surgery.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Machine Learning for Preoperative Prediction of Intraoperative Hypothermia in Gynecological Laparoscopic Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study.The journal of obstetrics and gynaecology research · 2026Article
- Epidemiological Trajectories and Quality of Care Disparities of MASLD in Asia, 1990-2023.Digestive diseases and sciences · 2026Article
- Thyroid disease burden among individuals aged 0-19 years in low-SDI countries, 1990-2035: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.Translational pediatrics · 2026Article
- Regional Inequities in Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease Burden and Care Quality in High-burden Settings: Implications for Health Systems.Journal of clinical and translational hepatology · 2026Article
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- Bulk and single-cell transcriptome analyses combined with molecular simulations identify ferritinophagy as a key target for resveratrol in osteoarthritis.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2026Article
- Predicting postoperative delayed awakening after flexible ureteroscopic lithotripsy based on radiomic features of body composition.Scientific reports · 2026Article
5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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10 authors.
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Abstract
Iodine deficiency (ID) poses a significant global public health challenge. This study aimed to analyze trends from 1990 to 2021 and project future patterns ≤2050 using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model, with Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), to identify key factors and inform public health strategies. Data on ID from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were used to model and predict its burden ≤2050 using XGBoost, with SHAP enhancing model interpretability. In 1990, global incident cases of ID were 7.51 million (age-standardized incidence rate [ASIR]: 126.11/100,000), rising to 8.08 million by 2021 (ASIR: 105.99/100,000, a 15.96% decrease), and projected to reach 8.48 million by 2050 (ASIR: 108.20/100,000). Prevalent cases increased from 146.42 million in 1990 (age-standardized prevalence rate [ASPR]: 2801.80/100,000) to 180.81 million in 2021 (ASPR: 2213.98/100,000, a 20.98% decrease), with 194.51 million expected by 2050 (ASPR: 1900.01/100,000). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) dropped from 2.46 million in 1990 (age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate [ASDR]: 46.19/100,000) to 2.25 million in 2021 (ASDR: 27.67/100,000, a 40.10% decrease) but are projected to rise slightly to 2.51 million by 2050 (ASDR: 25.51/100,000). SHAP analysis identified iodized salt coverage as a key factor, with higher coverage levels associated with reduced ID burden in most countries. Women and people aged 10-30 y had higher incidence rates, although prevalence and DALYs peaked among those aged 20-45 y. Central and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will continue to bear the highest burden through 2050. The XGBoost+SHAP model identified age, sex, and iodized salt coverage as key factors, with women and younger populations being high-risk groups. Strengthening iodization programs, improving health care access, targeted education, and consistent monitoring of vulnerable populations are essential to mitigate future risks and improve health outcomes.
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