Re-calibrating measurements of low-cost air quality monitors using PCR-GPR air quality forecasting models.

As a key tool for real-time monitoring of air pollutant concentrations, the chemical sensor, the core component of the low-cost Air Quality Monitor (AQM), is susceptible to a variety of factors during the measurement process, leading to errors in the measurement data. To enhance the measurement accuracy of chemical sensors, this paper presents a calibration method based on the PCR-GPR model. This method not only effectively enhances the measurement accuracy of chemical sensors, but also combines the interpretability of traditional statistical models with the high-precision characteristics of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) models. First, we perform Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the measurement data of the AQM to solve the multicollinearity problem. Through PCA, we successfully extracted 8 principal components, which not only contained 95% of the information in the original data, but also effectively eliminated the correlation between the variables, providing a more robust data base for subsequent modeling. Subsequently, we established a Principal Component Regression (PCR) model using the concentration of pollutants measured by the national monitoring station as the dependent variable and the 8 principal components extracted above as the independent variables. The PCR model can effectively extract the linear relationship between the independent and dependent variables, providing a linear part of the explanation for the calibration process. However, there are often complex nonlinear relationships between pollutant concentrations and AQM measurements. To capture these nonlinear relationships, we further established a GPR model with the residuals of the PCR model as the dependent variable and the measurement data of the AQM as the independent variable. By combining the PCR model and the GPR model, we obtained the final PCR-GPR calibration model. It is worth mentioning that this study adopted the time series cross-validation method for data grouping, an innovative approach that is more aligned with real-world scenarios and adequately captures the seasonal variations in pollutant concentrations. The experimental results show that the model exhibits excellent performance on several evaluation metrics and can calibrate the chemical sensor well, improving its measurement accuracy by 16.94% ~ 82.01%.