Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39911747›Full record

ArticleIJID regions2025

The early warning and response systems in Syria: A functionality and alert threshold assessment.

Mhd Bahaa Aldin Alhaffar, Aula Abbara, Naser Almhawish, Maia C Tarnas, Yasir AlFaruh, Anneli Eriksson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in IJID regions, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Mhd Bahaa Aldin AlhaffarDepartment of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
Aula AbbaraSyria Public Health Network, England, UK.
Naser AlmhawishSyria Public Health Network, England, UK.
Maia C TarnasDepartment of Population Health and Disease Prevention, University of California Irvine, Irvine, USA.
Yasir AlFaruhAssistance Coordination Unit, Gaziantep, Turkey.
Anneli ErikssonDepartment of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objectives: this study aims to provide an updated evaluation of the functional characteristics of the two Early Warning Systems (EWS) in Syria, EWARS (Early Warning, Alert, and Response System) and EWARN (Early Warning, Alert, and Response Network), and to test different alert threshold methods using World Health Organization guidelines against the data of selected diseases. Methods: A retrospective analysis of EWARN and EWARS surveillance data assessed functional characteristics. The World Health Organization alert thresholds for measles, acute bloody diarrhea, acute jaundice syndrome, and severe acute respiratory infections were tested using three methods. Sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index determined threshold suitability for each syndrome. Results: The annual average number of reported cases was 1,140,717 for EWARS and 10,189,415 for EWARN. This study found that the optimal alert thresholds varied among different diseases. The percentile method showed promising results with good sensitivity and specificity. For measles, the 85 Conclusions: This study supports the use of adaptable disease-specific alert thresholds such as the percentile approach. Further research is required to develop statistical methods that can be applied to various early warning systems in conflict contexts.

Indexed as

Alert thresholdEarly warning systemEWARNEWARSSyndromic surveillance, conflictSyria

Identifiers

PMID39911747
PMCPMC11795629

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.