Evaluating Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Incident Heart Failure as Time-varying Covariates for Time-to-Event Analysis Among Adults 55 Years and Older in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).
Pierre J Amiel, Bharath Ambale-Venkatesh, Colin O Wu, Matthew Matheson, Mohammad R Ostovaneh, João A C Lima, Christopher F Cox
Registry-linked trialAbstract readMulticenter StudyObservational Study
Observational study in Journal of cardiac failure, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT00005487 (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), which is not on this map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
2 · The registry
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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5 · Who and what money
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Pierre J AmielDivision of Cardiology, Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MD.
Bharath Ambale-VenkateshDepartment of Radiology, Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MD.
Colin O WuOffice of Biostatistics Research, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD.
Matthew MathesonDepartment of Medicine, Penn State Milton S. Hershey Medical Center, Pennsylvania State University, Hershey, PA.
Mohammad R OstovanehDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Baltimore, MD.
João A C LimaDivision of Cardiology, Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MD.
Christopher F CoxOffice of Biostatistics Research, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD. Electronic address: ccox18@jh.edu.
Funding
Institute for Clinical and Translational ResearchUL1TR001079 · NCATS · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI FORD, DANIEL ERNEST · 2013 to 2017
$60.1M
Wake Forest Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR001420 · NCATS · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI ARD, JAMY D, FOLEY, KRISTIE L · 2015 to 2023
$32.3M
Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR000040 · NCATS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI GINSBERG, HENRY N · 2012 to 2015
$26.2M
Task Area A Core Study Operations.Task Area A shall encompass annual follow-up of cohort members, clinical endpoints ascertainment, study coordination activities, maintenance of the database and biosp75N92020D00001 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI MCCLELLAND, ROBYN LEAGH · 2020 to 2025
$17.2M
Atrial fibrillation burden, vascular disease of the brain and cardiac MRI in MESAR01HL127659 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI HECKBERT, SUSAN R · 2015 to 2018
$7.4M
Interplay of Myocardial Fibrosis and Cardiac TTR Amyloid in Age Related Cardiac Remodeling in MESA-Multi-Ethnic Study of AtherosclerosisR01HL159987 · NHLBI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI DORBALA, SHARMILA, LIMA, JOAO A C · 2022 to 2025
$5.6M
Task Area A shall encompass annual follow-up of cohort members, clinical events investigations, study operations, and data analysis and manuscript writing. If implemented, Task A.1 will provide fundin75N92020D00005 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI WATSON, KAROL E · 2020 to 2025
$5.1M
TO EXERCISE OPTION PERIOD ONE (1) FOR TASK AREA A - MESA CORE OPERATIONS, FIELD CENTER.75N92020D00004 · NHLBI · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY · PI SIEGEL, JONATHAN H · 2020 to 2025
$4.5M
Task Area A shall encompass annual follow-up of cohort members, clinical events investigations, study operations, and data analysis and manuscript writing. If implemented, Task A.1 will provide fundin75N92020D00006 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI PANKOW, JAMES S · 2020 to 2025
$4.4M
Task Area A shall encompass annual follow-up of cohort members, clinical events investigations, study operations, and data analysis and manuscript writing. If implemented, Task A.1 will provide fundin75N92020D00003 · NHLBI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI POST, WENDY S · 2020 to 2025
$3.8M
Task Area A shall encompass annual follow-up of cohort members, clinical events investigations, study operations, and data analysis and manuscript writing. If implemented, Task A.1 will provide fundin75N92020D00007 · NHLBI · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI BERTONI, ALAIN GERALD · 2020 to 2025
$3.5M
Task Area A shall encompass annual follow-up of cohort members, clinical events investigations, study operations, and data analysis and manuscript writing. If implemented, Task A.1 will provide fundin75N92020D00002 · NHLBI · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI SHEA, STEVEN J · 2020 to 2025
objectivesHeart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently coexist, exacerbate each other and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality rates. However, no previous study has specifically calculated the risk of experiencing either event following the occurrence of the other and also considered competing risks. The aim of this study was to examine the bidirectional relationship of AF and HF in a multiethnic population, taking competing risks into account.
methodsTwo Fine and Gray regression models of the subdistribution functions were implemented to evaluate the bidirectional association between AF and HF and were adjusted for a common set of covariates. Competing events were defined as HF/AF and/or cardiac death vs noncardiac death. For each model, common covariates for AF and HF were pre-identified in the literature, and either HF or AF was used as a time-dependent covariate.
resultsIn the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), 4016 study participants (mean age 67.2 ± 7.6 years and 48.8% male participants), free of clinically recognized cardiovascular disease at baseline, were assessed for AF and HF. After a median (IQR) follow-up of 6034 (3994-6313) days, 1044 incident AFs, 302 incident HFs and 1298 events of death occurred. Deaths were distributed as 313 cardiac deaths and 985 noncardiac deaths, and the incidence of AF was about 3.5 higher than that of HF. We found that HF was associated with a composite outcome of AF and/or cardiac death (HR 2.91, 95%CI [2.49-3.40]; P < 0.001) and that AF was associated with a composite outcome of HF and/or cardiac death (HR 2.05, 95%CI [1.79-2.35]; P < 0.001).
conclusionAF and HF exacerbate the incidence of each other and are strongly and independently associated, suggesting that their joint association should be taken into consideration in future studies. From a clinical perspective, the occurrence of either of these events greatly increases the risk for the other (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00005487).
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.
Evaluating Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Incident Heart Failure as Time-varying Covariates for Time-to-Event Analysis Among Adults 55 Years and Older in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). · full record | OpenQuestion