Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39907980›Full record

ArticleJapanese journal of radiology2025

Influence of prior probability information on large language model performance in radiological diagnosis.

Takahiro Fukushima, Ryo Kurokawa, Akifumi Hagiwara, Yuki Sonoda, Yusuke Asari, Mariko Kurokawa, Jun Kanzawa, Wataru Gonoi, Osamu Abe

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Japanese journal of radiology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Recent Advances in Musculoskeletal Radiology: Bridging Innovation and Clinical Application.Magnetic resonance in medical sciences : MRMS : an official journal of Japan Society of Magnetic Resonance in Medicine · 2026
    Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Takahiro FukushimaDepartment of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
Ryo KurokawaDepartment of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan. kuroro63@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1186-8900
Akifumi HagiwaraDepartment of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
Yuki SonodaDepartment of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
Yusuke AsariDepartment of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
Mariko KurokawaDepartment of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
Jun KanzawaDepartment of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
Wataru GonoiDepartment of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
Osamu AbeDepartment of Radiology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeLarge language models (LLMs) show promise in radiological diagnosis, but their performance may be affected by the context of the cases presented. Our purpose is to investigate how providing information about prior probabilities influences the diagnostic performance of an LLM in radiological quiz cases. MATERIALS AND

methodsWe analyzed 322 consecutive cases from Radiology's "Diagnosis Please" quiz using Claude 3.5 Sonnet under three conditions: without context (Condition 1), informed as quiz cases (Condition 2), and presented as primary care cases (Condition 3). Diagnostic accuracy was compared using McNemar's test.

resultsThe overall accuracy rate significantly improved in Condition 2 compared to Condition 1 (70.2% vs. 64.9%, p = 0.029). Conversely, the accuracy rate significantly decreased in Condition 3 compared to Condition 1 (59.9% vs. 64.9%, p = 0.027).

conclusionsProviding information that may influence prior probabilities significantly affects the diagnostic performance of the LLM in radiological cases. This suggests that LLMs may incorporate Bayesian-like principles and adjust the weighting of their diagnostic responses based on prior information, highlighting the potential for optimizing LLM's performance in clinical settings by providing relevant contextual information.

Indexed as

LanguageAdultAgedBayes TheoremFemaleHumansLarge Language ModelsMaleMiddle AgedProbabilityArtificial intelligenceBayes’ theoremClaude 3.5 SonnetLarge language model

Identifiers

PMID39907980
PMCPMC12125143

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.