ArticleBMC medicine2025
Did the resurgence of childhood lower respiratory infections offset the initial benefit of COVID-19-related non-pharmaceutical interventions in children? A time-series analysis.
Article in BMC medicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Promoting expertise knowledge sharing in paediatric virology: An update (Review).Experimental and therapeutic medicine · 2026Review
- Changes in the incidence and profile of pediatric tuberculosis in France from 2014 to 2023: impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions implementation and lifting.European journal of pediatrics · 2026Article
- Hospitalisations for respiratory tract infections in preterm and term born children aged 1-5 years before, during and after COVID-19 control measures: an interrupted time-series analysis.BMJ paediatrics open · 2026Article
- The acuity of paediatric asthma in the emergency department worsened after the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta, Canada.Allergy, asthma, and clinical immunology : official journal of the Canadian Society of Allergy and Clinical Immunology · 2026Article
- Pediatric healthcare service utilization after the end of COVID-19 state of emergency in Northern Italy: a 6-year quasi-experimental study using interrupted time-series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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16 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundFollowing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) lifting in 2021, an important surge in childhood lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) was reported in several countries, raising major concerns about the middle-term consequences of such interventions. Whether this recent upsurge overwhelms the initial benefit of NPI remains unknown.
methodsWe conducted an interrupted time-series analysis based on exhaustive national surveillance systems. All hospitalisations from January 2015 to March 2023 and all ambulatory visits for LRTI from a network of 110 paediatricians from June 2017 to March 2023 were included. The main outcome was the monthly incidence of children hospitalised for LRTI per 100,000 over time, assessed by a seasonally adjusted quasi-Poisson regression model.
resultsWe included 845,047 hospitalisations. The incidence of hospitalisation for LRTI significantly decreased during the NPI period (- 61.7%, 95% CI - 98.4 to - 24.9) and rebounded following NPI lifting, exceeding the pre-NPI baseline trend (+ 12.8%, 95% CI 6.7 to 19.0). We observed similar trends for hospitalisation due to bronchiolitis, pneumonia and pneumonia with pleural effusion, along with ambulatory LRTI. Overall, despite the recent rebound, 31,777 (95% CI, 25,375 to 38,179) hospitalisations for paediatric LRTI were averted since NPI implementation up to 2023.
conclusionsThree years after their implementation, despite an increase in LRTI incidence, the middle-term impact of NPI remains highly beneficial in preventing overall paediatric LRTI. The implementation of some societally acceptable NPI, particularly during epidemics, may be considered in the future to further reduce the burden of paediatric LRTI.
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