ArticleNature communications2025
The role of climate and population change in global flood exposure and vulnerability.
Article in Nature communications, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Impact of flooding events on waterborne and vector-borne infections: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Pooled it
- Warming accelerates drought-flood oscillations and stratifies socioeconomic exposure.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Global estimation of bankfull river discharge reveals distinct flood recurrences across climate zones.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Human imprints on global riverfronts.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal dynamics of population change in flood risk zones of the Pearl River Delta (1985-2024).Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Anthropogenic climate change accelerates the onset of global flood timing.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Prenatal exposure to flood and risk of low birth weight: a multi-country study from 36 African countries.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Breeding Climate-Resilient Soybeans for 2050 and Beyond: Leveraging Novel Technologies to Mitigate Yield Stagnation and Climate Change Impacts.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Community resilience to urban flooding across comparative neighborhoods in China.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Global Inequality and Injustice in Mortality Burden from Floods and Landscape Fire-Sourced Air Pollution.Health data science · 2026Article
- River channel change can affect flood hazard and impact substantially.Communications earth & environment · 2026Article
- Exposed yet unmapped: evidence of differential flood exposure in deprived urban areas using citizen science.npj urban sustainability · 2026Article
- IUTF Dataset: Enabling Cross-Border Resource for Analysing the Impact of Rainfall on Urban Transportation.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Assessing climate change impacts on flood risk in the Yeongsan River Basin, South Korea.Scientific reports · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Flooding is a pervasive natural hazard with wide-ranging impacts on society. Using a high-resolution global flood model considering coastal, fluvial, and pluvial hazards, we clarify the role of climate effects versus population growth effects in changing flood exposure. Between 2020 and 2100, the population likely exposed to 1% annual risk (100-year) flood hazard will increase from 1.6 to 1.9 billion people. Of this change from the 2020 exposure, we attribute 21.1% to climate change, 76.8% to population change, and 2.1% to both climate and population change. The largest driver of uncertainty in exposure is population change, while climate change remains a smaller but still important driver. The global increase in exposure between 2020 and 2100 is primarily driven by low-GDP regions, and by 2100 the lowest GDP areas will make up 63% of the exposure both overall and in urban areas. Urban areas are especially vulnerable in nearly all global regions, and urban areas sensitive to extreme events are expected to see a 33% increase in population exposure. This study highlights the vast inequities in flood exposure, and future work should direct resources and strategies toward sustainable risk mitigation in these areas.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.