ArticleEClinicalMedicine2025
Hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modeling analyses of incidence and intervention impact.
Article in EClinicalMedicine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Enhancing Hepatitis B and C Prevention Among People Who Use Drugs: Evaluating an Educational Intervention at a Drop-In Center in Southwest Iran based on Protection Motivation Theory.BMC public health · 2025Trial
- Serological and molecular detection of hepatitis C virus in Amran governorate, Yemen.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Hepatitis Management in Saudi Arabia: Trends, Prevention, and Key Interventions (2016-2025).Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2025Review
- Prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection in Qatar's resident population based on a national screening campaign.Scientific reports · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Background: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the most affected by hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection globally. This study aimed to estimate HCV incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in MENA and evaluate the impact of interventions. Methods: A mathematical model was extended and applied to 13 countries with at least one data point on the population size of PWID and HCV antibody prevalence among PWID, generating estimates for the period 2024-2030. The model was calibrated using multiple datasets, primarily derived from systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Multivariable uncertainty analyses were conducted. Findings: Incidence rate among PWID in the 13 countries combined was 10.4 per 100 person-years (95% UI: 8.0-14.1), with an estimated 42,364 new infections annually (95% UI: 27,990-57,540), accounting for 16.9% (95% UI: 8.3-28.2) of all cases in these countries. These figures varied widely across countries. A 75% reduction in needle/syringe sharing decreased viremic chronic infection prevalence by 14.2% (95% UI: 11.3-17.1), incidence rate by 33.8% (95% UI: 30.2-40.5), and annual new infections by 24.4% (95% UI: 17.7-30.1). A 10% reduction in PWID numbers and a 20% reduction in injection frequency decreased chronic infection prevalence by 1.7% (95% UI: 1.4-2.5), incidence rate by 4.2% (95% UI: 3.9-4.4), and annual new infections by 11.1% (95% UI: 10.9-11.9). Achieving 75% direct-acting antiviral treatment coverage by 2030 decreased chronic infection prevalence by 65.3% (95% UI: 64.8-65.8), incidence rate by 34.5% (95% UI: 29.6-40.3), and annual new infections by 25.3% (95% UI: 19.9-29.3). Combinations of interventions reduced these epidemiologic outcomes by up to 80%. Interpretation: MENA experiences considerable HCV incidence among PWID. While the interventions showed potential, only large-scale or multi-intervention strategies can achieve meaningful reductions in HCV transmission. Funding: This publication was made possible by NPRP grant number 12S-0216-190,094 from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation). The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the views, decisions, or policies of World Health Organization.
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