Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39892912›Full record

ArticleLancet (London, England)2025

Suspected and confirmed mpox cases in DR Congo: a retrospective analysis of national epidemiological and laboratory surveillance data, 2010-23.

Eugene Bangwen, Ruth Diavita, Elise De Vos, Emmanuel Hasivirwe Vakaniaki, Sabin Sabiti Nundu, Annie Mutombo, Felix Mulangu, Aaron Aruna Abedi, Emile Malembi, Thierry Kalonji and 30 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet (London, England), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. In Critical Condition: The Urgent Need to Support Mpox Therapeutic and Diagnostic Pipelines.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Community transmission of mpox clade Ib not driven through sexual exposures, Uvira, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, June to October 2024.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. From neglected to notoriety: a review of Mpox clinical features, virology, epidemiology, treatment and prevention strategies.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2025
    Review
  19. Article
  20. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

40 authors.

Eugene BangwenDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium; Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
Ruth DiavitaInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka Metropolitan University, Osaka, Japan.
Elise De VosDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.
Emmanuel Hasivirwe VakaniakiDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium; Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Sabin Sabiti NunduDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium; Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Annie MutomboDepartment of Epidemiological Surveillance, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Felix MulanguDepartment of Epidemiological Surveillance, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Aaron Aruna AbediDepartment of Epidemiological Surveillance, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Emile MalembiHemorrhagic Fever and Monkeypox National Program, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Thierry KalonjiHemorrhagic Fever and Monkeypox National Program, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Cris KacitaNational Institute of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Eddy Kinganda-LusamakiInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; TransVIHMI Recherches translationnelles sur le VIH et les maladies infectieuses endémiques et émergentes, Université de Montpellier, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development, INSERM, Montpellier, France.
Tony Wawina-BokalangaDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium; Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; Department of Medical Biology, University Hospital of Kinshasa, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Cécile KremerInteruniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics, Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium.
Isabel BrosiusDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.
Christophe Van DijckDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.
Emmanuel BottieauDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.
Koen VercauterenDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium.
Adrienne Amuri-AzizaInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Jean-Claude Makangara-CigoloInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; Department of Medical Biology, University Hospital of Kinshasa, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; Graduate School for Cellular and Biomedical Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Elisabeth MuyamunaInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Elisabeth PukutaInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Beatrice NgueteKinshasa School of Public Health, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Didine KabaKinshasa School of Public Health, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Joelle KabambaUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Christine M HughesUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Olivier Tshiani-MbayaInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; Department of Medical Biology, University Hospital of Kinshasa, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; Frederick National Laboratory, Leidos Biomedical Research, Clinical Monitoring Research Program Directorate, Frederick, MD, USA.
Anne W RimoinDepartment of Epidemiology, Jonathan and Karin Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles CA, USA.
Nicole A HoffDepartment of Epidemiology, Jonathan and Karin Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles CA, USA.
Jason KindrachukDepartment of Medical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Niel HensInteruniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics, Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium; Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
Martine PeetersTransVIHMI Recherches translationnelles sur le VIH et les maladies infectieuses endémiques et émergentes, Université de Montpellier, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development, INSERM, Montpellier, France.
Nicola LowInstitute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Andrea M McCollumUS Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Robert ShongoHemorrhagic Fever and Monkeypox National Program, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Daniel Mukadi-BamulekaInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; Department of Medical Biology, University Hospital of Kinshasa, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; Rodolphe Merieux INRB-Goma Laboratory, Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Jean-Jacques Muyembe-TamfumInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Steve Ahuka-MundekeInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; Department of Medical Biology, University Hospital of Kinshasa, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Laurens LiesenborghsDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium; Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. Electronic address: lliesenborghs@itg.be.
Placide Mbala-KingebeniInstitut National de Recherche Biomédicale, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo; Department of Medical Biology, University Hospital of Kinshasa, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Funding

European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP) RIA2016E-1612
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDR Congo has the highest global burden of mpox, a disease caused by infection with the monkeypox virus. The incidence has risen since 1980, but recent analyses of epidemiological trends are lacking. We aimed to describe trends in suspected and confirmed mpox cases in DR Congo using epidemiological and laboratory mpox surveillance data collected from 2010 to 2023, and provide insights that can better inform the targeting and monitoring of control strategies.

methodsWe analysed aggregated national epidemiological surveillance data and individual-level laboratory data from 2010 to 2023. We calculated incidence based on suspected cases, case-fatality ratios, and percentage of laboratory-confirmed cases and assessed geospatial trends. Demographic and seasonal trends were investigated using generalised additive mixed models.

findingsBetween Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2023, a total of 60 967 suspected cases and 1798 suspected deaths from mpox were reported in DR Congo (case-fatality ratio 2·9%). The number of reporting provinces increased from 18 of 26 provinces in 2010 to 24 of 26 provinces in 2023. The annual incidence increased from 2·97 per 100 000 in 2010 to 11·46 per 100 000 in 2023. The highest incidence (46·38 per 100 000) and case-fatality ratio (6·0%) were observed in children younger than 5 years. Incidence was higher in rural compared with urban areas. PCR testing was performed for 7438 suspected cases (12·2%), with 4248 (57·1%) of 7438 samples testing positive. Median age of confirmed cases (13·0 years [IQR 6·0-25·0]) remained stable, although the 95th percentile of age increased over time.

interpretationThe incidence and geographical distribution of suspected mpox cases have increased substantially since 2010. Improvements in surveillance and decentralised testing are essential to monitor mpox trends and direct interventions effectively, to address the public health emergency declarations issued in August, 2024.

fundingBelgian Directorate-General Development Cooperation and Humanitarian Aid; European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership; Research Foundation-Flanders; European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations; Department of Economy, Science, and Innovation of the Flemish Government; Canadian Institutes of Health Research; and the International Development Research Centre.

Indexed as

Mpox, MonkeypoxAdolescentAdultAgedChildChild, PreschoolDemocratic Republic of the CongoFemaleHumansIncidenceInfantInfant, NewbornMaleMiddle AgedPopulation SurveillanceRetrospective Studies

Identifiers

PMID39892912
PMCPMC7618260

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.