Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39892747›Full record

ArticleOphthalmology2025

Twenty-Year Trends in Prevalence and Incidence of Diabetic Retinal Disease.

Brian L VanderBeek, Yinxi Yu, Serena Cardillo, Rebecca Hubbard

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Ophthalmology, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Observational
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Brian L VanderBeekDepartment of Ophthalmology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Center for Research and Training in Pharmacoepidemiology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Electronic address: Brian.vanderbeek@pennmedicine.upenn.edu.
Yinxi YuCenter for Preventive Ophthalmology and Biostatistics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Serena CardilloDivision of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Rebecca HubbardDepartment of Biostatistics, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, Rhode Island.

Funding

Scientific TransparencyP30EY001583 · NEI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI CLAIRE H MITCHELL · 1985 to 2026
$19.5M
Trends in US Rates of Diabetic Retinal DiseaseR21EY035707 · NEI · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI VANDERBEEK, BRIAN L. · 2024 to 2025
$447k
NEI NIH HHS P30 EY001583NEI NIH HHS R21 EY035707
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeTo determine how the rates of diabetic retinal disease (DRD) and its vision-threatening components (VTDR), diabetic macular edema (DME), and proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) among patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) have changed over the past 20 years.

designRetrospective cohort study.

participantsAll DM patients insured by commercial and Medicare Advantage insurance plans in a claims database from 2000 through 2022 and at least 1 full calendar year of data. Cohorts were created using International Classification of Diseases codes to determine the yearly prevalence and incidence of DRD, VTDR, DME, and PDR.

methodsLogistic and Poisson regression models created prevalence and incidence estimates, respectively.

main outcome measuresDRD, DME, and PDR prevalence and incidence.

resultsThe prevalence of DRD initially decreased from 2001 (13.6%) to 2007 (10.9%), but then increased every year through 2021 (20.8%; P < 0.001, adjusted test for trend [aTT]). Incidence of DRD varied considerably, ranging from 16.9 cases per 1000 patient-years in 2013 to its highest of 32.2 cases per 1000 patient-years in 2021 (P < 0.001, aTT). The prevalence of VTDR and DME trended similarly, with increases from 2007 (VTDR, 5.2%; DME, 3.2%) through 2016 (VTDR, 7.5%; DME, 5.4%), followed by decreases each year through 2021 (VTDR, 6.9%; DME, 4.9%; P < 0.001, aTT). The VTDR and DME incidence rates peaked in 2009 (VTDR, 12.4 cases per 1000 patient-years; DME, 8.6 cases per 1000 patient-years) and decreased through 2022 (VTDR, 6.1 cases per 1000 patient-years; DME, 5.0 cases per 1000 patient-years; P < 0.001, aTT, for both VTDR and DME). Prevalence of PDR varied between 3.2% and 4.0% throughout the 20-year observation period (P < 0.001, aTT). Incidence of PDR decreased over time to 2.6 cases per 1000 patient-years in 2022 (P < 0.001, aTT).

conclusionsDRD prevalence (through 2007) and incidence (through 2014) initially decreased, but the rate of each has doubled since. Despite increases in DRD, incidence rates of VTDR, DME, and PDR have improved dramatically over the past 20 years. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Indexed as

Diabetic RetinopathyMacular EdemaAdultAgedAged, 80 and overAge DistributionDatabases, FactualFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceRetrospective StudiesUnited StatesDiabetic macular edemaDiabetic retinal diseaseIncidencePrevalenceProliferative diabetic retinopathy

Identifiers

PMID39892747
PMCPMC12256132

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.