Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39891537›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2025

Annual Estimation of Seasonal Influenza Burden in 6 South American Countries: A Retrospective Analysis of SARInet Surveillance Data to Inform Policies.

Miguel Angel Descalzo, Francisco José de Paula Júnior, Natalia Vergara Mallegas, Elena Penayo, Carla Voto, Natalia Goñi, Alfredo Bruno, Walquiria Aparecida Ferreira da Almeida, Greice Madeleine Ikeda do Carmo, María Fernanda Olivares Barraza and 21 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

31 authors.

Miguel Angel DescalzoDepartment of Public Health Emergencies, Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2262-7547
Francisco José de Paula JúniorMinistry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil.
Natalia Vergara MallegasDepartment of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Santiago, Chile.
Elena PenayoGeneral Directorate of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Public Health and Social Welfare, Asunción, Paraguay.
Carla VotoSurveillance Area, Directorate of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Buenos Aires, Argentina.ORCID 0000-0003-3869-3212
Natalia GoñiDepartment of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Public Health, Montevideo, Uruguay.ORCID 0000-0002-3460-5097
Alfredo BrunoNational Reference Center for Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses, National Institute of Public Health Research, Guayaquil, Ecuador.
Walquiria Aparecida Ferreira da AlmeidaMinistry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil.
Greice Madeleine Ikeda do CarmoMinistry of Health, Brasilia, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0002-4214-0576
María Fernanda Olivares BarrazaDepartment of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Santiago, Chile.
Rodrigo FasceViral Diseases Department, Institute of Public Health, Santiago, Chile.
Jorge PachecoDepartment of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Santiago, Chile.
Cynthia VázquezGeneral Directorate of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Public Health and Social Welfare, Asunción, Paraguay.
Marta Von HorochGeneral Directorate of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Public Health and Social Welfare, Asunción, Paraguay.ORCID 0000-0002-2420-2745
Silvia BattagliaGeneral Directorate of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Public Health and Social Welfare, Asunción, Paraguay.ORCID 0000-0003-1017-6053
Carlos GiovacchiniSurveillance Area, Directorate of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Buenos Aires, Argentina.ORCID 0000-0001-9250-1977
Elsa BaumeisterRespiratory Viruses Service, National Reference Laboratory, Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization National Influenza Center, INEI-ANLIS "Dr. Carlos G. Malbrán", Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Adrián SantoroDirectorate of Statistics and Health Information, Ministry of Health, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
María Pía BuyayisquiSurveillance Area, Directorate of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Miguel AlegrettiDepartment of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Public Health, Montevideo, Uruguay.
Mónica Patricia Escobar NaranjoNational Directorate of Epidemiological Surveillance, Ministry of Public Health, Quito, Ecuador.ORCID 0009-0009-6361-5647
Jorge H JaraSpecial Program Comprehensive Immunization, Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA.
Francisco NogaredaSpecial Program Comprehensive Immunization, Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA.
Ángel RodríguezDepartment of Public Health Emergencies, Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA.
Nelson Jose Alvis-ZakzukDepartment of Public Health Emergencies, Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA.
A Danielle IulianoInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Eduardo Azziz-BaumgartnerInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0298-5814
Stefano TempiaGlobal Influenza Program, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0003-4395-347X
Juliana Almeida LeiteDepartment of Public Health Emergencies, Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA.
Marc RondyDepartment of Public Health Emergencies, Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA.
Paula CoutoDepartment of Public Health Emergencies, Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, Washington, DC, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1900-2543

Funding

CDC HHSNCIRD CDC HHS NU51IP000940WHO Pandemic Influenza Preparedness FrameworkWorld Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWe estimate annual viral influenza-associated mild-to-moderate illness, hospitalizations, and deaths in 6 South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay) during the 2015-2019 influenza seasons as a first step in evaluating the full value of influenza vaccination in the subregion.

methodsWe applied a multiplier method using monthly hospital discharge and vital statistics death records, influenza surveillance data, and population projections to estimate mild-to-moderate influenza-associated illness, hospitalizations, and deaths. We estimated the uncertainty bounds based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the Monte Carlo simulated distributions for the number of cases and obtained the ranges from the minimum value of the 2.5th and the maximum value of the 97.5th percentile.

resultsIn selected countries with a total population of 307 million people, the yearly influenza-associated burden of disease ranged between 51 and 78 million mild-to-moderate influenza illnesses, between 323 379 and 490 049 hospitalizations, and between 22 662 and 46 971 deaths during the 2015-2019 influenza seasons.

conclusionsEach year, influenza is associated with millions of illnesses, hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations, and tens of thousands of deaths in 6 South American countries, affecting a significant portion of the population. Such findings can be used to estimate the number of illnesses averted through vaccination programs and the cost-benefit of influenza vaccines.

Indexed as

Cost of IllnessInfluenza, HumanHospitalizationHumansInfantInfluenza VaccinesPopulation SurveillanceRetrospective StudiesSeasonsSouth AmericaVaccinationInfluenza Vaccinesburden of diseasedeathshospitalizationsmild illnessmultiplier model

Identifiers

PMID39891537
PMCPMC11892003

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.