Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39890732›Full record

ArticleMethods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.)2025

Concepts and Methods for Predicting Viral Evolution.

Matthijs Meijers, Denis Ruchnewitz, Jan Eberhardt, Malancha Karmakar, Marta Łuksza, Michael Lässig

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.), 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Matthijs MeijersInstitute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany.
Denis RuchnewitzInstitute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany.
Jan EberhardtInstitute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany.
Malancha KarmakarInstitute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany.
Marta ŁukszaDepartments of Oncological Sciences and Genetics and Genomic Sciences, Tisch Cancer Institute, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA. marta.luksza@mssm.edu.
Michael LässigInstitute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany. mlaessig@uni-koeln.de.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein hemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here, we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to 1 year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available at https://previr.app .

Indexed as

Computational BiologyEvolution, MolecularInfluenza, HumanSARS-CoV-2COVID-19EpitopesHumansInfluenza A virusMutationEpitopesAntigenic evolutionFitness modelsInfluenza vaccinesPopulation immunity

Identifiers

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.