Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39890609›Full record

ArticleHead & neck2025

Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer: UICC8 Versus Purpose-Built Failure-Type Specific Risk Prediction Model.

Katrin Håkansson, Daha Hassan Muse, Anna Bäck, Jacob H Rasmussen, Anne Marie Lindegaard, Lena Specht, Jeppe Friborg, Hedda Haugen Cange, Ivan R Vogelius

Abstract readValidation StudyComparative StudyMulticenter Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Head & neck, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Katrin HåkanssonDepartment of Oncology, Centre of Cancer and Organ Diseases, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0001-8570-4813
Daha Hassan MuseDepartment of Oncology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Anna BäckDepartment of Medical Radiation Sciences, Institute of Clinical Sciences, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Jacob H RasmussenDepartment of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery and Audiology, Centre of Head and Orthopaedics, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Anne Marie LindegaardDepartment of Oncology, Centre of Cancer and Organ Diseases, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Lena SpechtDepartment of Oncology, Centre of Cancer and Organ Diseases, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Jeppe FriborgDepartment of Oncology, Centre of Cancer and Organ Diseases, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark.ORCID 0000-0001-5423-0627
Hedda Haugen CangeDepartment of Oncology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Ivan R VogeliusDepartment of Oncology, Centre of Cancer and Organ Diseases, Copenhagen University Hospital-Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark.

Funding

Varian Medical Systems
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundA previously published failure-type specific risk model showed good performance in the original cohort.

aimto validate the model and separate patients with high- and low-risk loco-regional failure (LRF). GOAL: to identify patients potentially suitable for treatment intensification trials.

methodsValidation data: 756 patients from two institutions (different countries). Predictive performance was evaluated by Brier scores and AUCs. Discriminatory performance was compared to Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) staging (versions 7 and 8).

resultsThe model's 3-year AUC for LRF was 65%, significantly better than UICC7 staging, but no significant difference to UICC8. Model-based risk stratification and UICC8 both identified high-risk patient groups with 3-year LRF ≈30%. The population mean was 18%.

conclusionsThe model performed well on a group level. UICC8 staging performed equally well. Although developed for the endpoint of OS, an improvement from UICC version 7 to version 8 was evident also for the prediction of LRF.

Indexed as

Head and Neck NeoplasmsNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalAdultAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm StagingRisk AssessmentTreatment Failurecompeting riskshead and neck cancerloco‐regional failureUICCvalidation

Identifiers

PMID39890609
PMCPMC12146813

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.