Harnessing temporal patterns in administrative patient data to predict risk of emergency hospital admission.

backgroundUnplanned hospital admissions are associated with worse patient outcomes and cause strain on health systems worldwide. Primary care electronic health records (EHRs) have successfully been used to create prediction models for emergency hospitalisation, but these approaches require a broad range of diagnostic, physiological, and laboratory values. In this study, we aimed to capture temporal patterns of patient activity from EHR data and evaluate their effectiveness in predicting emergency hospital admissions compared with conventional methods.

methodsIn this retrospective observational study, we used the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank to extract temporal patterns of primary care activity from undifferentiated electronic health record timestamp data for 1·37 million patients in Wales aged 18-80 years with at least one recorded Read code between the years 2016 and 2018. Using Gaussian mixture modelling we grouped patients into distinct temporal clusters, performed a three-stage validation of our approach and calculated the risk of emergency hospital admission for each temporal cluster group. Finally, these temporal clusters were combined with five administrative variables and incorporated into four emergency hospital admission prediction models (logistic regression, naive Bayes, XGBoost, and multilayer perceptron [MLP]) and compared with a more traditional, but data-intensive, modelling technique. The primary outcome was emergency hospital admission as the next health-care event.

findingsSix distinct temporal cluster patterns of primary care EHR activity were identified, associated with varying risks of future emergency hospital admission risk. These patterns were visually interpretable, repeatable at a population-level, and clinically plausible. The best emergency hospital admission prediction model (MLP) achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0·82 and precision of 0·94 in regional cohorts. In external validation in regional cohorts, similar model performance was observed (AUROC 0·82 and precision 0·92). This model also matched the performance of a more complex model (extended feature model) requiring 33 clinical parameters (AUROC 0·82 vs 0·83; precision 0·94 vs 0·90) for the same task on the same dataset.

interpretationWe developed a novel machine learning pipeline that extracts interpretable temporal patterns from simple representations of EHR data and can be incorporated into emergency hospital admission predictors. This framework might enable more rapid development of parsimonious clinical prediction models.

fundingUKRI CDT in AI for Healthcare, UKRI Turing AI Fellowship, NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, and Research Capability Funding.