ArticleVaccine2025
Estimating COVID-19 associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths averted in the United States by 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccination: A conditional probability, causal inference, and multiplier-based approach.
Article in Vaccine, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- COVID-19 vaccination and mortality among coronary care patients with severe acute respiratory infection in Bangladesh: a prospective study (2021-2024).The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2026Article
- Insights Into monoclonal antibodies and vaccines targeting respiratory viruses.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2026Review
- Effectiveness of 2024-2025 COVID-19 Vaccines in Children in the United States - VISION, August 29, 2024-September 2, 2025.MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report · 2025Article
- Risk factors associated with cytomegalovirus reactivation and disease in critically-ill COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients, concomitantly admitted to intensive care.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Interim Estimates of 2024-2025 COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Among Adults Aged ≥18 Years - VISION and IVY Networks, September 2024-January 2025.MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
Abstract
COVID-19-associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths averted from 2023 to 2024 COVID-19 vaccination from the weeks of October 1, 2023, through April 21, 2024, were estimated via a novel multiplier model that utilized causal inference, conditional probabilities of hospitalization, and correlations between data elements in Monte Carlo simulations. Median COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted were 68,315 (95 % uncertainty interval [UI] 42,831-97,984), ICU admissions averted were 13,108 (95 % UI 4459-25,042), and in-hospital deaths averted were 5301 (95 % UI 101-14,230). Averted COVID-19-associated burden was highest in adults aged 65 years and older (hospitalizations averted 57,665, 95 % UI 35,442-84,006; ICU admissions averted 10,878, 95 % UI 3104-21,591; in-hospital deaths averted 4779, 95 % UI 0-13,132). Expanding the analytic period to comprise the weeks of September 24, 2023, through August 11, 2024, resulted in 107,197 COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted (95 % UI 80,692-137,643), 18,292 COVID-19-associated ICU admissions averted (95 % UI 10,062-28,436), and 6749 COVID-19-associated in-hospital deaths averted (95 % UI 2077-13,557). Older adults had the highest COVID-19-associated averted burden and potential to reduce burden further through increased vaccine coverage. 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccinations reduced the burden of COVID-19-associated severe disease.
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Registered trials
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