ArticlePloS one2025
Goal-line oracles: Exploring accuracy of wisdom of the crowd for football predictions.
Article in PloS one, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Football's inherent volatility and low-scoring nature present unique challenges for predicting outcomes. This study investigates the efficacy of Wisdom of the Crowd in forecasting football match outcomes as well as expected goals (XG) across a Premier League season. Participants predicted team goal counts, which were then compared to actual expected goals (XG) and match results. Results across 760 team predictions reveal that while Wisdom of the Crowd accurately predicts XG on average, it overestimates 'big-6' teams and underestimates others, hinting at inherent biases. Notably, however, collective crowd predictions outperform individual estimates consistently, affirming the power of collective intelligence. Furthermore, when tested against betting odds, Wisdom of the Crowd demonstrates limited profitability, indicating its potential as a supplementary rather than sole prediction tool. These findings underscore the nuanced dynamics of football prediction and highlight the utility of collective wisdom in navigating its complexities. Overall, this study contributes insights into crowd prediction dynamics and underscores its potential in football analytics, shedding light on its implications for decision-making and understanding group behaviour in sports forecasting contexts.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.