ArticleSaudi journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Saudi Gastroenterology Association2025
Risk factor analysis and prediction of multi-organ metastasis in hepatic alveolar echinococcosis.
Article in Saudi journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Saudi Gastroenterology Association, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Alveolar Echinococcosis in the Early 2020s: A Systematic Review.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Pooled it
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8 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundPatients with multiple organ metastases from hepatic alveolar echinococcosis have a high mortality rate. However, predictors of multi-organ metastasis have not been identified. We aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts multi-organ metastasis in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis.
methodsWe retrospectively screened patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis who were treated between January 2016 and December 2021 at Qinghai Provincial People's Hospital, China. The outcome of the nomogram was multi-organ metastasis of hepatic alveolar echinococcosis. We collected patients' basic characteristics, disease course, imaging, and blood laboratory results. The Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) analysis selected the predictors preliminarily. A predictive model was constructed by multivariate logistic regression and presented as a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was measured by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration diagram, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The model was internally validated by calculating the performance of the validation cohort.
resultsA total of 353 patients were enrolled in this study. Ninety five (26.9%) patients presented with multi-organ metastases. All participants were randomized into a development cohort ( n = 249) and a validation cohort ( n = 104). Predictors in this nomogram were the course of the disease, the long diameter of the lesion, multiple intrahepatic lesions, and medication. The ROC curve of the training set was 0.907 (95% CI: 0.870, 0.943). A similar ROC curve was achieved at the validation set (0.927, 95% CI: 0.876, 0.979). The calibration curve demonstrated that the prediction outcome was correlated with the observed outcome.
conclusionThe nomogram can predict the risk of multi-organ metastasis in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis, and help clinicians develop or adjust a reasonable diagnosis and treatment plan in time.
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